Insider Trading Investigation Dashboard
Political Donation & Insider Trade Correlation Analysis
Generated: July 27, 2026 | Sources: SEC EDGAR Form 4, FEC OpenFEC API, Capitol Trades
Data: Jun 15, 2024 → Jul 23, 2026
OPEN INVESTIGATIONS
Threads Not Yet Confirmed
Leads that don't clear the VELOCITY bar yet — no primary-source confirmation, or an open question still unresolved. Each entry states what would confirm it and what would kill it. Nothing here is a finding; it's a labeled watch list. See Published in VELOCITY for confirmed dispatches.
OPEN
BridgeGate — Matthew Moroun and the Gordie Howe Bridge Delay
opened 2026-07-18
Michigan billionaire Matthew Moroun, owner of the privately-held Ambassador Bridge (Detroit-Windsor), gave $1M to MAGA Inc on Jan 16 2026. On Feb 9, Moroun met Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick midday; that evening Trump posted publicly demanding the $6.4B publicly-owned Gordie Howe International Bridge — a direct competitor to Moroun's toll bridge, slated to open in 2026 — be delayed to renegotiate the US-Canada deal. The bridge opening was subsequently cancelled. House Oversight Democrats opened an investigation; WSJ editorial board dubbed it Bridgegate.
KNOWN FACTS
- Moroun $1,000,000 contribution to MAGA Inc, FEC filing dated Jan 16 2026.
- Feb 9 2026, midday: Moroun met Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington per NYT reporting.
- Feb 9 2026, evening: Trump posted publicly reversing his prior (first-term-era) support for the Gordie Howe Bridge, demanding delay/renegotiation.
- Gordie Howe Bridge ($6.4B, announced 2012 under PM Harper) opening subsequently cancelled at Trump administration demand.
- Moroun owns Detroit International Bridge Company (Ambassador Bridge) — privately held, no SEC Form 4/insider-trading exposure found; the Gordie Howe Bridge opening would end his toll-bridge near-monopoly on Detroit-Windsor crossings.
- MAGA Inc and White House spokespersons both deny any connection between the donation and the policy reversal.
- House Oversight Committee Democrats launched a formal investigation into the sequence.
- ULH (Universal Logistics Holdings, historically Moroun-family-linked, still public) checked via daily price/volume Jan 1-Mar 1 2026: no abnormal spike on or around Feb 9 2026 specifically (that day: +1.05%, 36.6K shares, below several routine days in the same window). ULH is a thinly-traded small-cap with routine 5-10% daily swings, so this is a weak negative, not a clean clearance.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- What did Lutnick relay to Trump from the Feb 9 meeting, and did it reference the donation directly?
- Is there a paper trail (calendar entries, WH visitor logs, internal memos) connecting the donation timing to the policy reversal beyond the two-event proximity?
- Does any Moroun-controlled entity (Central Transport, CenTra Inc, Universal Logistics Holdings — publicly traded, historically Moroun-linked) show any pre-Feb-9 trading activity?
CONFIRMS IF
Documentary evidence (WH visitor logs, Lutnick memo, internal comms) directly links the $1M MAGA Inc donation to the Feb 9 policy reversal.
KILLS IF
Evidence emerges that the bridge delay was driven by an independent negotiation dispute with Canada predating the Moroun donation and meeting.
Next step: Check Universal Logistics Holdings (ULH) — the one still-public Moroun-family-linked freight company — for any options/equity activity around Feb 9 2026. Track House Oversight investigation findings.
Donor records →Suspects dashboard →
DOWNGRADED
The $445 Million Question — Mark A. Stevens (NVDA)
opened 2026-07-02 · updated 2026-07-03
NVIDIA director Mark A. Stevens sold $445.6M of NVDA across four sale days in 2026 — the largest multi-day liquidation campaign in the dataset. DOWNGRADED July 3 2026: his own 2024-2025 EDGAR history shows $425M (2024) and $542M (2025) in annual sales with a recurring June window — the 2026 campaign matches his multi-year baseline cadence. The case's own kills-if criterion was met within 24 hours of opening.
KNOWN FACTS
- Seven open-market sale transactions across 4 days, $445,605,062.55 total, verified against EDGAR Form 4 XML (accessions 0001199039-26-000003/-000005/-000007).
- All three Form 4s carry aff10b5One=0 — the Rule 10b5-1(c) checkbox is unmarked; by the filer's own representation these were not plan-scheduled sales (verified in filing XML July 2 2026).
- Jun 2 + Jun 4 tranches ($221.1M) are the last two trading sessions before NSPM-11 (AI national-security memo, Jun 5) and the Nasdaq's largest daily decline since early 2025 (Jun 5). Jun 1: Commerce expands AI chip export controls to Chinese firms globally.
- Jun 18 tranche ($186.0M) sold the day the US-Iran MOU was signed at the G7 in Versailles.
- Also filed: 307,500-share gift (code G) on Jun 4, same day as the second sale tranche; 1,211-share director award Jun 25.
- No FEC donation records for Stevens in the project dataset — unusual for a Tier 3 watchlist entry.
- BASELINE (added July 3 2026, 27 filings pulled from EDGAR): 2024 = $425.5M sold over 22 sale days; 2025 = $542.5M over 10 sale days; 2026 through June = $445.6M over 4 days. Annual $400-550M liquidation is his normal cadence.
- The June cluster is an annual ritual, not event timing: 2025 sale days were June 2, 3, 6, 9, 18; 2026 sale days June 2, 4, 18. He sold $88.4M on June 18 2025 and $186M on June 18 2026 — same calendar day, two years running, one year before any US-Iran MOU existed.
- aff10b5One=0 on all 27 filings back through Jan 2024 — the unmarked 10b5-1 checkbox is his standard filing practice, not a 2026 anomaly.
- Recurring year-end/mid-year gift program: 385,000 sh Dec 2024; 258,650 sh Dec 2025; 307,500 sh Jun 2026.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- Why are none of the sales filed as 10b5-1 plan trades across three years of nine-figure annual selling?
- Does the recurring June window align with NVIDIA's insider trading window policy (post-annual-meeting), and is that documented anywhere public?
CONFIRMS IF
Evidence of a specific material non-public catalyst known to the NVIDIA board before Jun 2 (e.g., advance knowledge of NSPM-11 scope or export-control follow-on) — or an SEC inquiry into the filings.
KILLS IF
MET (July 3 2026): multi-year pattern of comparable selling emerged — 2024/2025 EDGAR history shows equal-or-larger annual liquidations on a recurring June/September/December cadence, including the same June 18 sale date in consecutive years. Entry retained as a methodology record rather than killed: the sales are real, large, and not plan-marked, but the timing story does not survive the baseline.
Next step: None active. Reopen only on: a Form 4/A asserting or contradicting a plan, a sale materially outside the established June/Sep/Dec windows, or evidence of a specific board-level catalyst.
Liquidations table →Suspects dashboard →
STALLED
The URIF's Unnamed General Partner
opened 2026-05-13 · updated 2026-07-01
The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund's controlling general partner has never been publicly named, more than a year after signing. Three Trump-orbit executives sold and donated the day the fund became law.
KNOWN FACTS
- TIAS 25-523 names DFC and Ukraine's Agency on Support Public-Private Partnership as limited partners; the Delaware LLC general partner is left as a bracket placeholder in the public LP agreement.
- Two supplemental agreements were signed the day after signing (classified, contents not disclosed).
- Catz, Ellison, and Schwarzman sold stock and donated the same day the fund was signed into law: $27.35M combined, confirmed via SEC EDGAR and FEC OpenData.
- A&M (Alvarez & Marsal) was appointed fund advisor Nov 2025; principal Elizabeth Shortino has a Treasury/IMF/OMB/State background.
- NDAA provision (P.L. 119-60) raised DFC liability cap $60B to $205B and made the URIF's golden-share/no-exit-rights structure the template for future resource deals.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- What is the legal name of the Delaware LLC general partner?
- Did any principal have advance knowledge of the classified supplemental agreements' contents?
- Were the May 12 trades executed on pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans?
- Did any Freshfields US partner donate to Trump committees during the LP drafting window (Apr 25 - May 23, 2025)?
CONFIRMS IF
Delaware Secretary of State ICIS entity search or a Freshfields-affiliate registered-agent filing surfaces the GP's legal name and it traces to a named Trump-orbit principal or donor.
KILLS IF
The GP entity resolves to an independent, arms-length fund administrator with no Trump-orbit or donor ties, and the May 12 trades are confirmed as pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales.
Next step: Run Delaware ICIS direct entity-name search for "United States Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund" / "URIF" and common DFC registered agents (Corporation Service Company, CT Corporation).
The Unnamed Partner →Orbit Map →
AWAITING RECORDS
Powerus Guardian-2 Contract's Undisclosed Value
opened 2026-05-01 · updated 2026-07-01
Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. hold a stake in Powerus, which received an April 30, 2026 Air Force counter-drone order with no disclosed contract value, quantity, or competitive-bid record.
KNOWN FACTS
- Powerus is a Florida-based drone manufacturer founded ~2025 by US Army Special Operations veterans.
- Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. announced a stake via American Venture Partners around March 2026.
- Dominari Securities, operating from Trump Tower, assisted the transaction.
- The Air Force placed a Guardian-2 counter-drone procurement order April 30, 2026, described by Powerus as a "limited procurement order" following an Arizona demonstration.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- What is the actual dollar value of the Guardian-2 contract?
- How many units/interceptors were ordered?
- Was the contract competitively bid, or sole-source/no-bid?
- What is Powerus's per-unit cost relative to comparable counter-drone systems (the cost-ratio claim in the published piece)?
CONFIRMS IF
A FOIA response, USAspending.gov award record, or DoD contract announcement discloses contract value/quantity and shows a no-bid or non-competitive award process.
KILLS IF
The contract is confirmed as competitively bid at market-comparable per-unit pricing.
Next step: File FOIA with Air Force contracting office for the Guardian-2 award record; check USAspending.gov for the award once it posts.
The Drone Monopoly →Blood Money: Powerus →Orbit Map →
DEVELOPING
The September 24 Xi White House Meeting
opened 2026-06-15 · updated 2026-07-01
Published VELOCITY analysis logs a Sept 24, 2026 Xi-Trump White House meeting as the next required step in a chain (SpaceX IPO -> Gulf equity -> Hormuz stability -> Iran deal -> $40B frozen Chinese-held Iranian assets) but the meeting hasn't happened yet.
KNOWN FACTS
- The MOU Collapse dispatch logs the chain: SpaceX IPO requires Gulf sovereign wealth equity (PIF/Qatar SWF, confirmed via xAI-SpaceX merger structure) -> requires Gulf security stability -> requires Hormuz resolution -> requires Iran deal -> requires $40B in frozen Chinese-held Iranian sovereign assets to move -> requires Chinese cooperation.
- A Xi-Trump White House meeting is scheduled/logged for September 24, 2026 as the trigger point for that Chinese cooperation.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- Will the meeting occur as scheduled, and will it produce a deliverable on the $40B frozen asset question?
- Is there any insider trade or donation clustering in the trading days immediately before/after Sept 24?
- Does the meeting outcome (or non-outcome) change the Hormuz/Iran deal chain published in the MOU Collapse piece?
CONFIRMS IF
A dated deliverable is announced around Sept 24 (asset release, Hormuz-related agreement) alongside a documented trade/donation cluster in the surrounding window.
KILLS IF
The meeting is cancelled or produces nothing related to the frozen-asset chain, and no trade clustering appears in the window.
Next step: Watch for meeting confirmation/agenda closer to Sept 24, 2026; run EDGAR + FEC scrape for the surrounding +/-10 day window once the date passes.
MOU Collapse: Financial Architecture Needed More Time →
STALLED
The $920 Million Number Match
opened 2026-06-08 · updated 2026-07-01
A May 7, 2026 crude oil short ($920M notional) and a June 7, 2026 Google-to-SpaceX monthly payment (also $920M, confirmed by Bloomberg) share the same dollar figure. Published as a noted coincidence, explicitly not treated as evidence of a connection.
KNOWN FACTS
- May 7, 2026: a $920M notional WTI crude short was placed 70 minutes before Axios reported the Iran MOU was on the verge of agreement; est. profit ~$125M; CFTC investigation open; trader unidentified.
- June 7, 2026: Bloomberg confirmed Google is paying SpaceX $920M/month through June 2029 ($30B total, 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs) — a legitimate, separately-documented commercial contract.
OPEN QUESTIONS
- Is there any documented link between the two $920M figures beyond the number itself?
- How often do round hundred-million-dollar figures recur by chance across billion-dollar-scale trades and contracts in this dataset (base rate not yet computed)?
- Does a third independent $920M (or similarly round) instance appear anywhere else in the dataset?
CONFIRMS IF
A documented link surfaces between the crude short and the Google-SpaceX contract (e.g., the same trader/entity, a disclosed reference to the contract in position sizing), or a base-rate check shows round $920M-scale matches are actually rare in this dataset.
KILLS IF
A base-rate check shows figures this round recur often across unrelated large trades/contracts, confirming the match is expected by chance alone.
Next step: Compute how often round hundred-million figures recur across all trades/contracts >$500M in the dataset, to establish whether this specific match is actually unusual.
The $920 Million Coincidence →Iran War Intel →