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Truth Social — Financially Relevant Posts
Trump posts scored for financial keywords (tariff, china, iran, bitcoin, oil, deal...). Red score ≥ 8 = high-signal. PRE-EVENT badge = post timestamp falls same day as a Kalshi or Polymarket volume spike.
2026-09-07 23:16 UTCscore 1325,728 favsPRE-EVENT
Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen
KXTRUMPSAY: iran, oil · OIL: iran, oil, war
2026-09-08 20:29 UTCscore 930,062 favsPRE-EVENT
Everyone knows that Canada doesn’t let our Great Dairy Farmers sell into the Canadian Market, and that the only reason Canada makes Autos is because of previous disastrous Trade Agreements while other
KXTRUMPSAY: market, canada, agreement · OIL: war
2026-09-07 14:00 UTCscore 88,834 favsPRE-EVENT
Iran’s Top Politicians Urge an End to the War: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, war
2026-09-07 17:39 UTCscore 743,073 favsPRE-EVENT
NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States — They live off American Buyers, American Companies, American
KXTRUMPSAY: market, canada · OIL: bomb
2026-09-07 14:15 UTCscore 313,705 favsPRE-EVENT
From Greg Wischer at the United States Department of the Interior: “Following five years of no repairs, the fountains and pools at the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial were recently rehabilitated. M
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: war
2026-09-07 02:24 UTCscore 315,731 favsPRE-EVENT
One of the absolutely best Attorney Generals in the Country is James Uthmeier of the Great State of Florida. He stands for everything MAGA - Strong on Crime and Borders, protecting our always under si
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: military
2026-09-06 19:06 UTCscore 315,567 favsPRE-EVENT
Last week at the White House Ballroom/Military Complex. It will be the finest of its kind, anywhere in the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: military
2026-09-07 13:50 UTCscore 210,782 favsPRE-EVENT
Chandler Hall, representing, on Television, the foolish Center for American Lack of Progress, stated that adding the National Guard to Cities, including our now Great Again, Washington, D.C., had “NO
KXTRUMPSAY: taiwan · OIL: nan
2026-09-07 00:49 UTCscore 211,899 favsPRE-EVENT
Trump ambassador vows NATO-like reforms to UN after terror scandal: ‘Clean this place up’: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: nato · OIL: nan
2026-09-07 00:48 UTCscore 211,793 favsPRE-EVENT
Trump cheers strong jobs report, calls for lower interest rates: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: interest rate · OIL: nan
2026-09-06 23:36 UTCscore 217,053 favsPRE-EVENT
Many people suggested changing the name of New Mexico, one of the great vote cheating states of all time, to NEW AMERICA. So much more prestigious and beautiful for the people of that potentially incr
KXTRUMPSAY: mexico · OIL: nan
2026-09-06 19:17 UTCscore 218,287 favsPRE-EVENT
I do this for our Country, not myself. I’ve made Hundreds of Billions of Dollars on Stocks, and many other type Holdings, for the U.S.A., not myself, and all I do is get criticized by the Radical Left
KXTRUMPSAY: stock · OIL: nan
Crypto Price Contracts
Short-duration price prediction contracts actively trading on Kalshi. Purple = long (price above target). Red = short (price below target). Volume spike before a crypto regulatory announcement = policy insider signal.
BTC
BTC 15-min (09:00)KXBTC15M-26SEP090045-45
Will BTC move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
BTC Daily > $78,700 (09:01)KXBTCD-26SEP0901-T78699.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $78,800 (09:01)KXBTCD-26SEP0901-T78799.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $78,900 (09:01)KXBTCD-26SEP0901-T78899.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $79,000 (09:01)KXBTCD-26SEP0901-T78999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $79,100 (09:01)KXBTCD-26SEP0901-T79099.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $79,250 (09:17)KXBTCD-26SEP0917-T79249.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
ETH
ETH 15-min (09:00)KXETH15M-26SEP090045-45
Will ETH move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
ETH Daily > $2,490 (09:17)KXETHD-26SEP0917-T2489.99
Will ETH close above this price at settlement today?
SOL
SOL 15-min (09:00)KXSOL15M-26SEP090045-45
Will SOL move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
XRP
XRP 15-min (09:00)KXXRP15M-26SEP090045-45
Will XRP move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
DOGE
DOGE 15-min (09:00)KXDOGE15M-26SEP090045-45
Will DOGE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
HYPE
HYPE 15-min (09:00)KXHYPE15M-26SEP090045-45
Will HYPE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
POLYMARKET
Prediction Market Insider Trading Tracker
NYT CONFIRMED
Source: NYT investigation "Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading" (May 2026). Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Federal indictment: US v. Van Dyke. VELOCITY series archive. Full VELOCITY dispatch →
80+
Suspicious accounts
(NYT)
27
Topics flagged
(12 = Iran war)
$2.7M+
Iran-related
Polymarket profits
50%
Military underdogs
win (vs 14% other)
$25B
Monthly Kalshi +
Polymarket volume
DOCUMENTED INCIDENTS
| Date |
Event / Bet |
Profit |
Status |
| Jan 1–2, 2026 | Maduro removal — bet at 7% odds before US entered Venezuela Jan 3 | $400,000+ | CHARGED |
| Feb 27–28, 2026 | US strike on Iran — 27 accounts, coordinated bets after Trump 3:38 PM order aboard Air Force One | $700,000+ | REVIEW |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Iran ceasefire — 7+ users bet hours before Trump Truth Social post. Two users $400K+ each. | $1.4M+ | REVIEW |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Israel strikes Iran — 13 users, 7 accounts opened days prior. "It's happening now" text as planes took off. | $600,000+ | CHARGED |
OLDGOAT OIL SHORT ARCHIVE — $3.2B / 6 SPIKES / 0 INVESTIGATIONS
$580MMar 23 — WTI short, 15 min before Trump paused strikes
$950MApr 7 — WTI short before ceasefire announcement
$750MApr 17 — WTI short, 20 min before Iran FM Hormuz announcement
$920MMay 7 — WTI short, 70 min before Axios MOU report (~$125M est. profit)
FAMILY FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
| Figure | Platform Connection |
|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | Adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. 1789 Capital. |
| Trump Media (DJT) | Announced plans for own prediction market. |
| Eric Trump | Alt5 board member (Nasdaq video Aug 2025). Alt5 acquired 7.5% WLFI tokens ($1.5B). Name removed Mar–May 2026. Claims "never" on board. Video not retracted. |
| Zack Witkoff | Alt5 chairman. Son of Iran negotiator Steve Witkoff. Introduced Eric Trump as "fellow board member" at Nasdaq. |
| CFTC Chair Selig | "Outspoken prediction market enthusiast." "There are no gaps in our ability to fulfill our mission." SCOTUS JUNE 29 Supreme Court 6-3 overturned Humphrey's Executor (Trump v. Slaughter) — Trump can now fire CFTC chair at will. CFTC's Prediction Markets Task Force, its three open Polymarket investigations, and its authority over Kalshi all now subject to presidential removal for any reason. |
SUSPICIOUS PATTERN FLAGS (NYT Methodology)
FLAG 1 Long-shot bet pays off — event probability ≤35%
FLAG 2 Recently opened account — within 7 days of winning bet
FLAG 3 Topic concentration — bets on 1–3 related topics, never loses
FLAG 4 Coordinated timing — multiple accounts, identical bets, same minute
FLAG 5 Military topic premium — underdogs win 50%+ vs. 14% other topics
FLAG 6 Post-win dormancy — account goes dark after single large bet
Investigation Board: Direct link between oil shorts ($3.2B) and individuals with classified strike access — pattern documented, individuals not named. Overlap between Polymarket clusters and VELOCITY series figures — structural inference. Alt5/Chinese CCP-connected firm deal — FT reported, not independently verified.