Truth Social — Financially Relevant Posts
Trump posts scored for financial keywords (tariff, china, iran, bitcoin, oil, deal...). Red score ≥ 8 = high-signal. PRE-EVENT badge = post timestamp falls same day as a Kalshi or Polymarket volume spike.
2026-10-25 22:58 UTCscore 1912,328 favsPRE-EVENT
RT: [link] the people of Israel, to those who haven’t seen it, I am attaching the Endorsement I gave one week ago to your Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu. As everyone is aware, including the enemy, Bib
KXTRUMPSAY: iran, oil · OIL: iran, oil, war, military, attack
2026-10-26 20:49 UTCscore 133,436 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Rhett Marques, who is running to represent the wonderful people of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. Rhett is strongly supported by many of t
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-10-26 20:56 UTCscore 116,003 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Clay Higgins is a MAGA Warrior who is doing a tremendous job representing the wonderful people of Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District! A tough Law Enforcement Officer, and brave U.S.
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-10-26 20:54 UTCscore 114,313 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot Alex Mealer, who is running to represent the incredible people of Texas’ 9th Congressional District. A West Point Graduate, and Combat Decorated
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, bomb, energy
2026-10-26 20:52 UTCscore 114,338 favsPRE-EVENT
Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna is an America First Patriot and Tremendous Champion for the wonderful people of Florida's 13th Congressional District! A true MAGA Warrior, Anna is working tirelessly
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-10-26 20:48 UTCscore 113,350 favsPRE-EVENT
Aaron Flint will be a tremendous Congressman for the amazing people of Montana’s 1st Congressional District! A Fifth Generation Montanan, and distinguished Combat Veteran, Aaron has dedicated his l
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-10-26 00:00 UTCscore 1117,225 favsPRE-EVENT
Let’s talk about this COMPLETE AND TOTAL LOSER, Bill Maher. He’s got a Low Rated Show on equally Low Rated HBO, which was once, long ago, a Network of Quality and Excitement — But that’s all gone. It’
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, war, attack
2026-10-26 20:49 UTCscore 103,521 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Ralph Alvarado, M.D., who is running to represent the incredible people of Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. A true friend to MAGA, Ralph
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:40 UTCscore 103,443 favsPRE-EVENT
Congresswoman Victoria Spartz is doing a fantastic job representing Indiana’s 5th Congressional District! Victoria is a Great Champion for Democracy. She is a hard worker, and has always had my Comple
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 02:28 UTCscore 1011,818 favsPRE-EVENT
Iran Oil Minister Resigns Amid US Blockade; Hamid Bovard Takes Interim Charge: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: iran, oil · OIL: iran, oil
2026-10-26 22:39 UTCscore 87,599 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Mike Johnson is a Great Man, an outstanding Representative for the wonderful people of Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, and a strong and fearless Speaker of the United States House
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:55 UTCscore 85,048 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Greg Murphy, M.D., is a Tremendous Champion for the incredible people of North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District! A distinguished Surgeon and Member of the House Veterans' Affairs Co
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:55 UTCscore 84,897 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Carlos De La Cruz, a fantastic America First Candidate running to be the next Congressman from Texas’ 35th Congressional District! A Brave, 20 Year Air Force Veteran,
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:55 UTCscore 84,600 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Eric Flores, who is running to represent the wonderful people of Texas’ 34th Congressional District. A Brave U.S. Army Veteran, and former Crim
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:54 UTCscore 84,434 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Tano Tijerina, who is running to represent the wonderful people of Texas’ 28th Congressional District. A Great and Highly Respected Hispanic Ju
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:53 UTCscore 84,169 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Scott Singer, who is running to represent the incredible people of Florida’s 25th Congressional District! A Proven Leader, Scott has served his
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:53 UTCscore 84,081 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Casey Askar, who is running to represent the tremendous people of Florida’s 22nd Congressional District! A Brave U.S. Marine Corps Veteran, and
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:52 UTCscore 83,978 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Sydney Gruters, the wife of our GREAT Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Joe Gruters, who is running to represent the Wonderful Peopl
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:52 UTCscore 83,890 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Mike Beltran, who is running to represent the tremendous people of Florida’s 14th Congressional District! A Harvard Law School Graduate, and ve
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-26 20:51 UTCscore 83,816 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Marty O'Donnell, who is running to represent the incredible people of Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. Marty is running against Susie Lee,
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
Crypto Price Contracts
Short-duration price prediction contracts actively trading on Kalshi. Purple = long (price above target). Red = short (price below target). Volume spike before a crypto regulatory announcement = policy insider signal.
BTC
BTC 15-minKXBTC15M-26OCT262230-30
Will BTC move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
BTC Daily > $79,700KXBTCD-26OCT2623-T79699.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $79,800KXBTCD-26OCT2623-T79799.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $80,000KXBTCD-26OCT2623-T79999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $80,100KXBTCD-26OCT2623-T80099.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $80,200KXBTCD-26OCT2623-T80199.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
ETH
ETH 15-minKXETH15M-26OCT262230-30
Will ETH move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
SOL
SOL 15-minKXSOL15M-26OCT262230-30
Will SOL move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
XRP
XRP 15-minKXXRP15M-26OCT262230-30
Will XRP move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
DOGE
DOGE 15-minKXDOGE15M-26OCT262230-30
Will DOGE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
HYPE
HYPE 15-minKXHYPE15M-26OCT262230-30
Will HYPE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
POLYMARKET
Prediction Market Insider Trading Tracker
NYT CONFIRMED
Source: NYT investigation "Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading" (May 2026). Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Federal indictment: US v. Van Dyke. VELOCITY series archive. Full VELOCITY dispatch →
80+
Suspicious accounts
(NYT)
27
Topics flagged
(12 = Iran war)
$2.7M+
Iran-related
Polymarket profits
50%
Military underdogs
win (vs 14% other)
$25B
Monthly Kalshi +
Polymarket volume
DOCUMENTED INCIDENTS
| Date |
Event / Bet |
Profit |
Status |
| Jan 1–2, 2026 | Maduro removal — bet at 7% odds before US entered Venezuela Jan 3 | $400,000+ | CHARGED |
| Feb 27–28, 2026 | US strike on Iran — 27 accounts, coordinated bets after Trump 3:38 PM order aboard Air Force One | $700,000+ | REVIEW |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Iran ceasefire — 7+ users bet hours before Trump Truth Social post. Two users $400K+ each. | $1.4M+ | REVIEW |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Israel strikes Iran — 13 users, 7 accounts opened days prior. "It's happening now" text as planes took off. | $600,000+ | CHARGED |
OLDGOAT OIL SHORT ARCHIVE — $3.2B / 6 SPIKES / 0 INVESTIGATIONS
$580MMar 23 — WTI short, 15 min before Trump paused strikes
$950MApr 7 — WTI short before ceasefire announcement
$750MApr 17 — WTI short, 20 min before Iran FM Hormuz announcement
$920MMay 7 — WTI short, 70 min before Axios MOU report (~$125M est. profit)
FAMILY FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
| Figure | Platform Connection |
|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | Adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. 1789 Capital. |
| Trump Media (DJT) | Announced plans for own prediction market. |
| Eric Trump | Alt5 board member (Nasdaq video Aug 2025). Alt5 acquired 7.5% WLFI tokens ($1.5B). Name removed Mar–May 2026. Claims "never" on board. Video not retracted. |
| Zack Witkoff | Alt5 chairman. Son of Iran negotiator Steve Witkoff. Introduced Eric Trump as "fellow board member" at Nasdaq. |
| CFTC Chair Selig | "Outspoken prediction market enthusiast." "There are no gaps in our ability to fulfill our mission." SCOTUS JUNE 29 Supreme Court 6-3 overturned Humphrey's Executor (Trump v. Slaughter) — Trump can now fire CFTC chair at will. CFTC's Prediction Markets Task Force, its three open Polymarket investigations, and its authority over Kalshi all now subject to presidential removal for any reason. |
SUSPICIOUS PATTERN FLAGS (NYT Methodology)
FLAG 1 Long-shot bet pays off — event probability ≤35%
FLAG 2 Recently opened account — within 7 days of winning bet
FLAG 3 Topic concentration — bets on 1–3 related topics, never loses
FLAG 4 Coordinated timing — multiple accounts, identical bets, same minute
FLAG 5 Military topic premium — underdogs win 50%+ vs. 14% other topics
FLAG 6 Post-win dormancy — account goes dark after single large bet
Investigation Board: Direct link between oil shorts ($3.2B) and individuals with classified strike access — pattern documented, individuals not named. Overlap between Polymarket clusters and VELOCITY series figures — structural inference. Alt5/Chinese CCP-connected firm deal — FT reported, not independently verified.