Insider Trading Investigation Dashboard

Political Donation & Insider Trade Correlation Analysis
Generated: June 05, 2026  |  Sources: SEC EDGAR Form 4, FEC OpenFEC API, Capitol Trades Data: Jun 15, 2024 → Jan 25, 2027
Overview All Suspects Crypto & Digital STOCK Act Donors Timeline Cases Liquidations Stories Iran War Intel Kalshi Markets Published in VELOCITY Influence Orbit About
ORBIT

Influence Orbit — Big Tech / Big Law / AI & Crypto

Mapping the intersection of Big Tech, AI Policy, and the law firms that act as conduits for both influence and information. Threshold for this group: $10,000+ trades. Data harvest pending — run commands below to populate.

ORBIT 1 — AI & CRYPTO
GENIUS Act / World Liberty Financial
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Elon MuskTesla/xAI/DOGEQuinn Emanuel
Sam AltmanOpenAI CEOLatham & Watkins
David SacksAI/Crypto Czar
Marc Andreessena16z GPGunderson Dettmer
Ben Horowitza16z GPGunderson Dettmer
Brian ArmstrongCoinbase CEOFenwick & West
ORBIT 2 — DEFENSE & INTELLIGENCE
$2.1B Palantir Iran Theater Contract
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Alex KarpPalantir CEOSusman Godfrey
Peter ThielFounders Fund / PLTRSkadden Arps
Palmer LuckeyAnduril FounderSkadden Arps
Trae StephensAnduril / Founders FundWiley Rein
ORBIT 3 — JUDICIAL & ADMINISTRATION
SCOTUS Pipeline / "Generally Met" Disclosures
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Jane Sullivan RobertsLegal Recruiter (Roberts spouse)Major, Lindsey & Africa
Leonard LeoFederalist Society / Marble Freedom TrustJones Day / Consovoy McCarthy
Dan ScavinoWH Deputy Chief of Staff
Pam BondiAttorney General
Watch: Kirkland & Ellis Appellate Group · Sullivan & Cromwell (financial reg) · Consovoy McCarthy (constitutional)
ORBIT 4 — RECIPROCAL TARIFF LITIGANTS
Liberation Day $2.4T Crash Correlations
Watch these firms for partner-level donations or stock sales within 48hrs of Liberation Day (Apr 2, 2025):
Sidley Austin · Crowell & Moring · Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld · Steptoe & Johnson
Cross-ref partner trades with Major, Lindsey & Africa placements same quarter = cluster signal.
ORBIT 5 — CFTC / PREDICTION MARKETS
Casino Part Two: The Regulator Was In On It
Law firm connections confirmed via NYT CFTC investigation (May 21–22, 2026) and SEC filings
FirmEntityConnection / FEC Hit
Gibson DunnPolymarketConfirmed outside counsel. BOUTROUS, THEODORE: $55,700 donated 1d before Hormuz escalation. POLLACK, JOHN: $70,000 5d before Hormuz closure extended.
Gibson DunnGoogle / AndurilSHARF, JESSE: $25,000 1d before Anduril $22B DoD contract. BATTS, EDWARD: $15,000 4d before DOJ drops Google antitrust. CLUSTER FLAGS
Gibson DunnSpaceX IPO ★ DUAL ENTRYFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — IPO counsel of record, Houston office (S-1 confirmed May 20 2026, CIK 0001181412). Same firm as Polymarket outside counsel (Casino series). One firm: largest IPO in history ($1.75T SPCX) AND prediction market generating federal criminal cases. House Oversight Comer records deadline June 5. CATASTROPHIC ORBIT FLAG
Cantor FitzgeraldSPCX / Cipher Mining ★ DUAL ENTRYFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — SPCX co-manager underwriter (S-1 confirmed May 20 2026). Howard Lutnick = Commerce Secretary. Brandon Lutnick = 1,723 donor correlations in dashboard. Cantor Fitzgerald connected to Cipher Mining $14.236M Treasury bond event (16/20). SpaceX IPO underwriter AND Cipher Mining/Lutnick orbit. HIGH ORBIT FLAG
AnthropicSpaceX Colossus Compute / Competing IPO ★ NEWFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — Anthropic files confidential S-1 June 1, 2026. $1.25B/month Colossus compute lease (SpaceX S-1 Note 18): 220,000+ NVIDIA GPUs, Colossus 1 and 2, Memphis. 90-day termination clause either party. Musk characterized arrangement as “military strategic reserve.” Two competing IPOs: SpaceX controls compute infrastructure of Anthropic. DOGE federal AI procurement visibility simultaneous with Musk’s SpaceX competing for same contracts. Quinn Emanuel = Musk personal counsel; Gibson Dunn = SpaceX corporate IPO counsel — two-firm split signals distinct personal liability exposure. CATASTROPHIC ORBIT FLAG
Willkie FarrPolymarket CLO pipelineNeal Kumar (Polymarket CLO) from Willkie Farr. GOTTLIEB, MICHAEL: $12,500 15d before AI chip export EO.
A&O ShearmanKuCoinConfirmed defense counsel — KuCoin CFTC $500K + DOJ $300M settlement (2024). Rescan needed (API timeout).
Sullivan & CromwellCFTC crypto defenseMajor CFTC crypto enforcement defense practice. Already tracked.
Steptoe & JohnsonCFTC regulatoryMajor CFTC regulatory advisory. 7 hits near policy events in current scan.
Source: Blood Money: The Casino, Part Two →  ·  NYT CFTC investigation May 21–22, 2026
ORBIT 6 — RARE EARTH / GREENLAND
The Forever Clause: CRML, REalloys, Tanbreez
Law firm connections confirmed via SEC EDGAR CORRESP filings and prospectus documents
FirmEntityConnection / FEC Hit
White & CaseCRML (Critical Metals)Confirmed U.S. securities counsel — SEC CORRESP 2024–2026 (Jason A. Rocha, Houston). CRML holds 92.5% Tanbreez deposit, Greenland. DUFNER, DANIEL: $50,000 3d before Burr stock event.
Paul HastingsREalloys (ALOY)Confirmed underwriters' counsel — ALOY prospectus. REalloys: DLA $1.7M Terves contract, Kasper advisory board, 15-yr offtake signed May 21, 2026.
Kirkland & EllisChina rare earth clusterLEVY, JENNIFER (attorney): $10,000 donated 0 days before China Rare Earth Export Controls (Oct 1, 2025). Score 420 — highest in dataset. CLUSTER FLAG
Crowell & MoringDOD contractsMajor government contracts practice. Cross-ref DLA Terves LLC contract period (March 2026).
Wiley ReinDefense trade lawGovernment contracts / trade law. Cross-ref Kasper SGE period and REalloys advisory appointment.
Source: The Forever Clause →  ·  SEC EDGAR CORRESP: CRML/White & Case (2024–2026)  ·  ALOY prospectus/Paul Hastings  ·  FEC orbit scan
ORBIT 7

SpaceX S-1 — Board Network & Self-Dealing Map

SEC S-1 filed 2026-05-20 · CIK 1181412 · Accession 0001628280-26-036936

SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20, 2026. 2025 revenue: $18.67B. Operating loss: -$2.59B. Board appointed Feb 2026 (Ehrenpreis, Glein) — same month xAI merged into SpaceX (Feb 2, 2026). Source: public SEC EDGAR filing. All figures from audited consolidated financial statements.

NameRoleOther AffiliationsBoard SinceConflicts / Flags
Elon Musk CEO / CTO / Chairman Tesla (CEO) · Neuralink · Boring Company · X/xAI (merged Feb 2026) May 2002 SEC SETTLEMENT $20M civil penalty (2018 Tesla tweet). xAI CEO + SpaceX CEO during merger — self-approval conflict.
Gwynne Shotwell President / COO / Director Polaris Inc. (board) · Northwestern Univ. trustees Mar 2009 Attorney-in-fact for Musk and Johnsen per S-1 signature page. Signs all SEC filings.
Bret Johnsen CFO USC Trustee · Previously Broadcom VP/Controller · Mindspeed CFO Signs all SEC filings with Shotwell per power of attorney.
Ira Ehrenpreis Director Tesla board · DBL Partners (founder/managing member) · Stanford Precourt Energy Feb 2026 DUAL BOARD On Tesla board while SpaceX buys $637M from Tesla (2025). Ehrenpreis joined SpaceX board same month xAI merged.
Randy Glein Director DFJ Growth (co-founder/managing partner) · Previously FeedBurner CFO (acq. Google) · Hughes Space / DIRECTV Feb 2026 (observer 2009) Board observer 17 years before formal appointment. DFJ Growth invests in 100+ growth-stage tech companies — undisclosed SpaceX-adjacent portfolio possible.
Antonio J. Gracias Director Valor Management LLC (CEO/CIO, $55B AUM) · Neuralink board (May 2026) · Boring Company board (May 2026) · Prev. Tesla Lead Independent Director 2007–2021 Oct 2010 SELF-DEALING Valor Equity Partners (Gracias's firm) leased AI hardware to CTC (xAI/SpaceX sub). Resulted in $4.507B in debt ($455M current + $4.052B long-term) on SpaceX balance sheet + $66M interest (2025). Failed sale-leaseback per auditors.
Donald Harrison Director Google LLC President, Global Partnerships & Corp Dev · Reliance Jio board (India's largest telecom) Feb 2015 COMPETITOR CONFLICT Active Google executive on SpaceX board. Google Cloud and Starlink compete in broadband/cloud. Harrison leads Google partnership/M&A strategy = access to SpaceX competitive intelligence.
Steve Jurvetson Director Future Ventures (co-founder) · The Metals Company (board) · Prev. DFJ managing director · Prev. Tesla board 2009–2020 · D-Wave investor Mar 2009 Future Ventures actively deploying VC while holding SpaceX board access = information asymmetry in space/tech sector.
Luke Nosek Director Gigafund (co-founder/managing partner) · Founders Fund GP (2006–2017) · PayPal co-founder (with Musk) · Last Energy (nuclear SMR) · Prev. DeepMind board Jul 2008 THIEL NETWORK Founders Fund = Peter Thiel / Palantir nexus (see ORBIT 2). Gigafund is dedicated SpaceX investment vehicle. Nosek manages fund while sitting on SpaceX board.
1B SHARES — MARS COLONY CLAUSE
Jan 13, 2026: Board approved 1,000,000,000 Class B shares to Musk
Vest only upon: (1) 15 market cap tranches ($500B → multi-trillion) AND (2) permanent human colony on Mars with ≥1 million inhabitants. Both conditions required per tranche. Milestones adjusted when xAI merged Feb 2, 2026.
TESLA SELF-DEALING — $637M
SpaceX buys from Tesla while Ehrenpreis sits on both boards
2025: $506M Megapacks + $131M Cybertrucks at MSRP from Tesla → SpaceX PP&E. 2024: $191M Megapacks. Musk is CEO of both. Ehrenpreis on both boards. Confirmed in Note 18.
MUSK $1.42B PRE-IPO STOCK PURCHASE
Musk trust bought $1,421M of SpaceX common stock from employees (2025)
Elon Musk, through his trust, purchased $1.421B of common stock from current and former SpaceX employees in 2025 — before S-1 filing. Price not disclosed in Note 18. Pre-IPO pricing advantage undisclosed.
GRACIAS / VALOR — $4.507B CONFLICT
Board member's firm holds $4.5B claim on SpaceX via failed leaseback
Oct–Nov 2025: Valor Equity Partners (Gracias) leased AI hardware to CTC (xAI/SpaceX sub). Auditors: failed sale-leaseback → $455M current + $4.052B long-term debt. $66M interest 2025. Gracias joined Neuralink + Boring Company boards May 2026 — same month as S-1.
Source: SpaceX S-1 · SEC EDGAR CIK 1181412 · Filed 2026-05-20 · Accession 0001628280-26-036936 · Note 18 (Related Party Transactions) · Executive Compensation section · Board of Directors section
DETECTION METHOD — THE CLUSTER EFFECT
  1. Identify a Policy Event date on the dashboard.
  2. Search for partner-level donations or stock sales from Kirkland, Jones Day, or Skadden within 48 hours of that date.
  3. Cross-reference those partners with Major, Lindsey & Africa recruitment placements in the same quarter.
Signal: A law firm partner selling tech stocks the day before a tariff announcement, while their firm represents the affected company = documented institutional front-running.
DOCUMENTED — OIL FUTURES & POLYMARKET FRONT-RUNNING
$3.2B in Suspicious Oil Shorts + Polymarket Insider Trades
DateTradeEvent (minutes later)Est. Profit
May 7, 2026 03:40$920M crude shortAxios Iran peace report (+70 min)~$125M
Apr 17, 2026$750M crude shortIran FM: Hormuz open (+20 min)est. $90M+
Apr 7, 2026$950M crude shortTrump ceasefire announcementest. $115M+
Mar 23, 2026$580M crude shortTrump pauses strikes (+15 min)est. $70M+
Polymarket: Mystery Iran trader (~$1M, 93% win rate) · "Magamyman" ($553K on Khamenei death) · MSgt Gannon Ken Van Dyke (arrested: $400K on Maduro capture using classified intel) · Donald Trump Jr. is adviser to Polymarket; 1789 Capital invested millions in platform.
LIVE DATA

Law Firm Partner Donations — Near Policy Events (30 scored · 5 cluster flags)

FEC employer-based search: $10,000+ donations within ±30 days of key policy events. Pre-event weighted 2×. CLUSTER = donor also appears in insider trades near same event.

A&O Shearman — merger note: Allen & Overy and Shearman & Sterling merged in May 2023 to form A&O Shearman. FEC records filed under legacy names (pre-merger) predate all tracked policy events (earliest: Mar 2025) and score 0. One pattern flagged: BASKIN, STUART (Shearman & Sterling) — 3× $10K donations, 11–13 days after China Tariff Wave 2 (EXTREME severity). Post-event timing is consistent with a firm positioning after tariff policy crystallized (trade & sanctions practice). No A&O Shearman-era donations (post-May 2023, filed under new name) returned from FEC — data gap or low filing rate under new brand.
ScoreFirmDonor / RoleAmountDateCommitteeTimingPolicy Event
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER G.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01COOPER VICTORY FUND0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER G.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01COOPER VICTORY FUND0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER G.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01COOPER VICTORY FUND0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER G.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01COOPER VICTORY FUND0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER G.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-10-01COOPER VICTORY FUND0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
410Gibson DunnBOUTROUS, THEODORE
ATTORNEY
$55,7002026-03-09DCCC1d BEFORE eventIran Conflict Escalation - Strait o
410Gibson DunnBOUTROUS, THEODORE
ATTORNEY
$55,7002026-03-09DCCC1d BEFORE eventIran Conflict Escalation - Strait o
410Gibson DunnBOUTROUS, THEODORE
ATTORNEY
$44,3002026-03-09DCCC1d BEFORE eventIran Conflict Escalation - Strait o
410Gibson DunnBOUTROUS, THEODORE
ATTORNEY
$44,3002026-03-09DCCC1d BEFORE eventIran Conflict Escalation - Strait o
409Gibson DunnSHARF, JESSE
ATTORNEY
$25,0002025-08-04UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('U1d BEFORE eventAnduril $22B DoD Counter-Drone Cont
409Gibson DunnSHARF, JESSE
ATTORNEY
$25,0002025-08-04UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('U1d BEFORE eventAnduril $22B DoD Counter-Drone Cont
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$24,0002025-10-31ACTBLUE1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$24,0002025-10-31JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTEC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
ATTORNEY
$24,0002025-10-31DCCC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$24,0002025-10-31ACTBLUE1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$24,0002025-10-31JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTEC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
409Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
ATTORNEY
$24,0002025-10-31DCCC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Skadden ArpsMULANEY, CHARLES JR
ATTORNEY
$21,0002025-08-04SECURE THE US SENATE 20261d BEFORE eventAnduril $22B DoD Counter-Drone Cont
408Skadden ArpsMULANEY, CHARLES JR
ATTORNEY
$21,0002025-08-04SECURE THE US SENATE 20261d BEFORE eventAnduril $22B DoD Counter-Drone Cont
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$20,3002025-10-31ACTBLUE1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$20,3002025-10-31JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTEC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
ATTORNEY
$20,3002025-10-31DCCC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$20,3002025-10-31ACTBLUE1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$20,3002025-10-31JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTEC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
408Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
ATTORNEY
$20,3002025-10-31DCCC1d BEFORE event100% Chinese Import Tariffs + Criti
Source: FEC OpenFEC API · orbit_law_firm_scan.py · Under review — not published
The Architecture Mapped — Click Any Zone to Read the Investigation
The Scaffolding Is The Story — infographic mapping the financial architecture of the Iran war