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Truth Social — Financially Relevant Posts
Trump posts scored for financial keywords (tariff, china, iran, bitcoin, oil, deal...). Red score ≥ 8 = high-signal. PRE-EVENT badge = post timestamp falls same day as a Kalshi or Polymarket volume spike.
2026-10-08 16:17 UTCscore 2213,901 favsPRE-EVENT
We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the
KXTRUMPSAY: iran, oil · OIL: iran, hormuz, strait, oil, attack, barre
2026-10-05 16:32 UTCscore 1317,363 favsPRE-EVENT
What's driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, "Refineries," where Russia's are being blown
KXTRUMPSAY: russia, ukraine · OIL: hormuz, strait, barrel
2026-10-03 03:37 UTCscore 913,860 favsPRE-EVENT
The Fake News reports regarding the ongoing investigation into the disastrous renovation of the Federal Reserve Building are total lies. The newly confirmed Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has announced an
KXTRUMPSAY: fed, federal reserve, powell · OIL: war
2026-10-09 00:56 UTCscore 811,510 favsPRE-EVENT
Melania Trump makes history presiding over UN Security Council — remarking on Iran war deaths: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, war
2026-10-08 18:59 UTCscore 815,564 favsPRE-EVENT
The Fake and Artificial News is out there trying to say that I’m inviting the enemy to bomb San Diego and Los Angeles when, in actuality, what I was talking about was that a temporary increase in the
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, bomb
2026-10-06 03:04 UTCscore 817,080 favsPRE-EVENT
I am grateful to my friend and Advisor on Aging Healthcare, Howard Kessler. He is doing incredible work for Americans 65 and older — Our GREAT SENIORS! Howard is a tremendously successful entrepreneur
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, energy
2026-10-06 02:55 UTCscore 812,165 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Highly Respected State Representative Johnny Garrett, who is running to represent the Wonderful People of Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District! A Seventh-Generation
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-06 02:54 UTCscore 811,519 favsPRE-EVENT
Chuck Gray has been a tremendous Secretary of State for the Great State of Wyoming, a place I love and WON BIG in 2016, 2020, and 2024!An America First Patriot, and true friend of MAGA, Chuck is now r
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-10-04 14:11 UTCscore 815,972 favsPRE-EVENT
The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They try to suppress the Vote, but I won all 7 Swing States, the Popular Vote, 86% of Counties, and 99% of Primaries this year. I AM ON THE BALLOT! President
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, war
2026-10-03 02:56 UTCscore 88,633 favsPRE-EVENT
Highly Respected and very popular Oklahoma State Auditor, Cindy Byrd, is running to be next State Treasurer of Oklahoma, a place I love and WON BIG, winning all 77 out of 77 Counties in 2016, 2020, an
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, energy
2026-10-08 22:57 UTCscore 512,988 favsPRE-EVENT
Can you believe that Alaska, a State I love, and won BIG, all three times, has three Republicans running against one Dumocrat for Governor? What is that all about? How stupid are we to do this? On top
KXTRUMPSAY: nato · OIL: war
2026-10-04 12:23 UTCscore 526,510 favsPRE-EVENT
Following the Historic White House Accord on Super Intelligence, where the World's most important Technology Companies came together, and confirmed their responsibilities to the American People, I am
KXTRUMPSAY: fed · OIL: war
2026-10-07 22:02 UTCscore 416,558 favsPRE-EVENT
To the people of Texas, I am headed your way, and one of the people that I am going to pay respect to today is Tano Tijerina. Out of love and passion, he is running against a Dumocrat, Henry Cuellar,
KXTRUMPSAY: fed, deal · OIL: nan
2026-10-03 17:46 UTCscore 425,743 favsPRE-EVENT
If Tom Cotton were putting Arkansas first, he would give them an extra hour of daylight and, more importantly, they wouldn’t have to run all over their houses, farms, work places, and everywhere else,
KXTRUMPSAY: chip, nato · OIL: nan
2026-10-09 00:51 UTCscore 38,320 favsPRE-EVENT
How Trump defied the ‘experts’ — and pushed the UN toward post-Oct. 7 peace: [link]
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: war
2026-10-06 12:36 UTCscore 334,206 favsPRE-EVENT
My Rally crowds and enthusiasm are unbelievable! Nobody has ever seen anything like it. We are flipping races all over the place. The Fake News knows it, but they don’t want to be truthful with their
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: war
2026-10-05 22:00 UTCscore 320,243 favsPRE-EVENT
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000. Thank you for your attention
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: war
2026-10-05 21:23 UTCscore 314,842 favsPRE-EVENT
Annie “Trannie” Andrews is running against our wonderful Darline Graham for the Senate in South Carolina. For years my dear friend Lindsey would say that, “Darline is the finest, most reliable, and on
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: military
2026-10-03 12:56 UTCscore 317,823 favsPRE-EVENT
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000. Thank you for your attention
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: war
2026-10-03 03:02 UTCscore 313,254 favsPRE-EVENT
The Great Ballroom and Military Complex being built at the White House. Very exciting! When completed, it will be the finest of its kind, anywhere in the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP
KXTRUMPSAY: nan · OIL: military
Oil, Indices & Metals
WTI, Brent crude, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Silver. Green = above target. Red = below target. Oil spike before war/ceasefire announcement = direct insider signal.
NASDAQ100U > 30700 (11:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1100-T306
NASDAQ100U > 30730 (10:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1000-T307
NASDAQ100U > 30760 (13:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1300-T307
NASDAQ100U > 30830 (11:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1100-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30830 (12:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1200-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30830 (16:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1600-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30840 (13:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1300-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30850 (11:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1100-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30860 (10:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1000-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30860 (12:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1200-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30860 (13:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1300-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30870 (10:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1000-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30870 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1500-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30870 (16:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1600-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30880 (13:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1300-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30890 (10:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1000-T308
NASDAQ100U > 30910 (11:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1100-T309
NASDAQ100U > 30930 (10:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1000-T309
NASDAQ100U > 30960 (11:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1100-T309
NASDAQ100U > 30980 (13:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1300-T309
NASDAQ100U > 30990 (14:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1400-T309
NASDAQ100U > 31050 (12:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT09H1200-T310
S&P 500 > $7,775 (10:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1000-T7774.9999
S&P 500 > $7,790 (10:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1000-T7789.9999
S&P 500 > $7,795 (11:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1100-T7794.9999
S&P 500 > $7,800 (10:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1000-T7799.9999
S&P 500 > $7,820 (11:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1100-T7819.9999
S&P 500 > $7,825 (11:00)KXINXU-26OCT09H1100-T7824.9999
WTI 15-min (09:09)KXWTI15M-26OCT090945-45
WTI > 92.49 (09:14)KXWTI-26OCT0914-T92.49
Crypto Price Contracts
Short-duration price prediction contracts actively trading on Kalshi. Purple = long (price above target). Red = short (price below target). Volume spike before a crypto regulatory announcement = policy insider signal.
BTC
BTC 15-min (09:09)KXBTC15M-26OCT090945-45
Will BTC move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
BTC < $82,050 (09:10)KXBTC-26OCT0910-B82050
Will BTC close below this price at settlement?
BTC Daily > $81,800 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T81799.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,000 (09:17)KXBTCD-26OCT0917-T81999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,100 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82099.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,300 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82299.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,400 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82399.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,500 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,600 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82599.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,700 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82699.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,800 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82799.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $82,900 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82899.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $83,000 (09:10)KXBTCD-26OCT0910-T82999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $83,500 (09:17)KXBTCD-26OCT0917-T83499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $84,000 (09:17)KXBTCD-26OCT0917-T83999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
ETH
ETH 15-min (09:09)KXETH15M-26OCT090945-45
Will ETH move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
ETH Daily > $2,475 (09:10)KXETHD-26OCT0910-T2474.99
Will ETH close above this price at settlement today?
ETH Daily > $2,485 (09:10)KXETHD-26OCT0910-T2484.99
Will ETH close above this price at settlement today?
XRP
XRP 15-min (09:09)KXXRP15M-26OCT090945-45
Will XRP move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
DOGE
DOGE 15-min (09:09)KXDOGE15M-26OCT090945-45
Will DOGE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
HYPE
HYPE 15-min (09:09)KXHYPE15M-26OCT090945-45
Will HYPE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
POLYMARKET
Prediction Market Insider Trading Tracker
NYT CONFIRMED
Source: NYT investigation "Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading" (May 2026). Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Federal indictment: US v. Van Dyke. VELOCITY series archive. Full VELOCITY dispatch →
80+
Suspicious accounts
(NYT)
27
Topics flagged
(12 = Iran war)
$2.7M+
Iran-related
Polymarket profits
50%
Military underdogs
win (vs 14% other)
$25B
Monthly Kalshi +
Polymarket volume
DOCUMENTED INCIDENTS
| Date |
Event / Bet |
Profit |
Status |
| Jan 1–2, 2026 | Maduro removal — bet at 7% odds before US entered Venezuela Jan 3 | $400,000+ | CHARGED |
| Feb 27–28, 2026 | US strike on Iran — 27 accounts, coordinated bets after Trump 3:38 PM order aboard Air Force One | $700,000+ | REVIEW |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Iran ceasefire — 7+ users bet hours before Trump Truth Social post. Two users $400K+ each. | $1.4M+ | REVIEW |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Israel strikes Iran — 13 users, 7 accounts opened days prior. "It's happening now" text as planes took off. | $600,000+ | CHARGED |
OLDGOAT OIL SHORT ARCHIVE — $3.2B / 6 SPIKES / 0 INVESTIGATIONS
$580MMar 23 — WTI short, 15 min before Trump paused strikes
$950MApr 7 — WTI short before ceasefire announcement
$750MApr 17 — WTI short, 20 min before Iran FM Hormuz announcement
$920MMay 7 — WTI short, 70 min before Axios MOU report (~$125M est. profit)
FAMILY FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
| Figure | Platform Connection |
|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | Adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. 1789 Capital. |
| Trump Media (DJT) | Announced plans for own prediction market. |
| Eric Trump | Alt5 board member (Nasdaq video Aug 2025). Alt5 acquired 7.5% WLFI tokens ($1.5B). Name removed Mar–May 2026. Claims "never" on board. Video not retracted. |
| Zack Witkoff | Alt5 chairman. Son of Iran negotiator Steve Witkoff. Introduced Eric Trump as "fellow board member" at Nasdaq. |
| CFTC Chair Selig | "Outspoken prediction market enthusiast." "There are no gaps in our ability to fulfill our mission." SCOTUS JUNE 29 Supreme Court 6-3 overturned Humphrey's Executor (Trump v. Slaughter) — Trump can now fire CFTC chair at will. CFTC's Prediction Markets Task Force, its three open Polymarket investigations, and its authority over Kalshi all now subject to presidential removal for any reason. |
SUSPICIOUS PATTERN FLAGS (NYT Methodology)
FLAG 1 Long-shot bet pays off — event probability ≤35%
FLAG 2 Recently opened account — within 7 days of winning bet
FLAG 3 Topic concentration — bets on 1–3 related topics, never loses
FLAG 4 Coordinated timing — multiple accounts, identical bets, same minute
FLAG 5 Military topic premium — underdogs win 50%+ vs. 14% other topics
FLAG 6 Post-win dormancy — account goes dark after single large bet
Investigation Board: Direct link between oil shorts ($3.2B) and individuals with classified strike access — pattern documented, individuals not named. Overlap between Polymarket clusters and VELOCITY series figures — structural inference. Alt5/Chinese CCP-connected firm deal — FT reported, not independently verified.