Truth Social — Financially Relevant Posts
Trump posts scored for financial keywords (tariff, china, iran, bitcoin, oil, deal...). Red score ≥ 8 = high-signal. PRE-EVENT badge = post timestamp falls same day as a Kalshi or Polymarket volume spike.
2026-06-02 01:39 UTCscore 138,780 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Aaron Flint, who is running to represent the tremendous people of Montana’s 1st Congressional District. Aaron is a MAGA Warrior, who is strongly supported by many of th
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-06-02 01:39 UTCscore 119,407 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Jeff Van Drew is a “MAGA” Warrior for the incredible people of New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District! As the Chairman of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight, Jeff is doing a
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-06-02 01:30 UTCscore 118,042 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Brian Mast is a MAGA Warrior and Fantastic Advocate for Florida’s 21st Congressional District! As the Chairman of my WINNING 2024 Campaign’s Veterans for Trump Coalition, Brian is a true
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: war, military, energy
2026-06-02 01:41 UTCscore 1010,387 favsPRE-EVENT
Senator Mike Rounds is an incredibly strong advocate for the wonderful people of South Dakota, a State I love, and WON BIG, in 2016, 2020, and 2024! An America First Patriot, Mike is fighting tirele
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:40 UTCscore 1010,623 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse U.S. Marine Corps Veteran and former Albuquerque Police Detective, Greg Cunningham, who is running to represent the wonderful people of New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional D
KXTRUMPSAY: energy, mexico · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:38 UTCscore 108,556 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Kurt Alme, a fantastic Candidate running to be the next U.S. Senator from the Great State of Montana, a place I love and WON BIG in 2016, 2020, and 2024! A Highly Res
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:35 UTCscore 107,936 favsPRE-EVENT
Highly Respected American First Congressman, Randy Feenstra, is running for Governor of Iowa, a place I love and WON BIG in 2016, 2020, and 2024, getting the highest Vote in the History of Iowa. Randy
KXTRUMPSAY: nato, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:34 UTCscore 107,764 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Kevin Lincoln, who is running to represent the incredible people of California’s 13th Congressional District. From bravely fighting for the U.S. Marine Corps, to lead
KXTRUMPSAY: stock, energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:29 UTCscore 1010,707 favsPRE-EVENT
If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hand
KXTRUMPSAY: china, iran · OIL: iran, military
2026-06-05 02:48 UTCscore 921,382 favsPRE-EVENT
The Ballroom is coming along fantastically well. It’s on time, and under budget (Unlike the Federal Reserve Building, where “Too Late” has done a terrible job of Cost and Time Control!), and at a much
KXTRUMPSAY: fed, federal reserve, national security · OIL: military
2026-06-04 11:13 UTCscore 843,753 favsPRE-EVENT
Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Repu
KXTRUMPSAY: iran · OIL: iran, war
2026-06-02 01:41 UTCscore 811,500 favsPRE-EVENT
Marty Jackley has been a tremendous Attorney General of South Dakota, a place I love and WON BIG, six times, including Primaries, in 2016, 2020, and 2024! An America First Patriot, and true friend o
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:40 UTCscore 89,801 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Tom Kean is a Great Representative for the People of New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District! A Tremendous Advocate of our America First Agenda, Tom is working tirelessly to Keep our Bor
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:40 UTCscore 89,327 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Chris Smith is a fantastic Representative for the wonderful people of New Jersey’s 4th Congressional District! As a Senior Member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Chris is figh
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:39 UTCscore 88,904 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Troy Downing is doing a truly fantastic job representing the incredible people of Montana’s 2nd Congressional District! Troy bravely served our Great Country in the U.S. Air Force as a C
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:37 UTCscore 88,375 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Chris McGowan, a fantastic Candidate running to be the next Congressman from Iowa’s 4th Congressional District! A Brave Iowa Air National Guard Veteran, successful At
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:37 UTCscore 88,078 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse MAGA Patriot, Joe Mitchell, who is running to represent the fantastic people of Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. As a former Appointee in my Administration at the U
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:36 UTCscore 88,002 favsPRE-EVENT
Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an incredibly strong advocate for the Great People of Iowa’s 1st Congressional District! A distinguished Medical Doctor and U.S. Army Veteran, Mariannette k
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:35 UTCscore 88,086 favsPRE-EVENT
It is my Great Honor to endorse Highly Respected San Diego County Supervisor, Jim Desmond, who is running to represent the tremendous people of California’s 48th Congressional District. A Brave U.S.
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
2026-06-02 01:34 UTCscore 87,858 favsPRE-EVENT
Congressman Jay Obernolte is doing a terrific job representing the wonderful people of California’s 23rd Congressional District! A Successful Entrepreneur, Civic Leader, and Highly Respected State L
KXTRUMPSAY: energy · OIL: military, energy
Oil, Indices & Metals
WTI, Brent crude, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Silver. Green = above target. Red = below target. Oil spike before war/ceasefire announcement = direct insider signal.
INXMINY (20:27)KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-5900.01
NASDAQ100 < 29350 (16:00)KXNASDAQ100-26JUN05H1600-B2935
NASDAQ100U > 28600 (16:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1600-T285
NASDAQ100U > 28970 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1500-T289
NASDAQ100U > 28990 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1500-T289
NASDAQ100U > 29040 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1500-T290
NASDAQ100U > 29070 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1500-T290
NASDAQ100U > 29100 (16:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1600-T290
NASDAQ100U > 29220 (15:00)KXNASDAQ100U-26JUN05H1500-T292
S&P 500 > $7,375 (16:00)KXINXU-26JUN05H1600-T7374.9999
S&P 500 > $7,395 (15:00)KXINXU-26JUN05H1500-T7394.9999
S&P 500 > $7,400 (16:00)KXINXU-26JUN05H1600-T7399.9999
SILVERD > 71.75 (08:17)KXSILVERD-26JUN0817-T71.75
Crypto Price Contracts
Short-duration price prediction contracts actively trading on Kalshi. Purple = long (price above target). Red = short (price below target). Volume spike before a crypto regulatory announcement = policy insider signal.
BTC
BTC 15-min (05:15)KXBTC15M-26JUN051500-00
Will BTC move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
BTC < $63,750 (05:17)KXBTC-26JUN0517-B63750
Will BTC close below this price at settlement?
BTC < $64,250 (05:17)KXBTC-26JUN0517-B64250
Will BTC close below this price at settlement?
BTC < $64,750 (05:17)KXBTC-26JUN0517-B64750
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BTC Daily > $58,250 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T58249.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $58,500 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T58499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $58,750 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T58749.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,000 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T58999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,100 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59099.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,200 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59199.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,300 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59299.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,400 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59399.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,500 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,500 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T59499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,600 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59599.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,700 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59699.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,750 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T59749.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,800 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59799.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $59,900 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59899.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,000 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T59999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,000 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T59999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,100 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T60099.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,200 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T60199.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,250 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T60249.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,300 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T60299.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,400 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T60399.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,500 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T60499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $60,900 (05:15)KXBTCD-26JUN0515-T60899.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $61,000 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T60999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $63,000 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T62999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $63,500 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T63499.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTC Daily > $64,000 (05:17)KXBTCD-26JUN0517-T63999.99
Will BTC close above this price at settlement today?
BTCMINMONKXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250
BTC price prediction contract
BTCY < $127,500 (01:00)KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B127500
Will BTC close below this price at settlement?
ETH
ETH 15-min (05:15)KXETH15M-26JUN051500-00
Will ETH move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
SOL
SOL 15-min (05:15)KXSOL15M-26JUN051500-00
Will SOL move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
HYPE
HYPE 15-min (05:15)KXHYPE15M-26JUN051500-00
Will HYPE move higher in the next 15 minutes from this snapshot?
POLYMARKET
Prediction Market Insider Trading Tracker
NYT CONFIRMED
Source: NYT investigation "Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading" (May 2026). Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Federal indictment: US v. Van Dyke. VELOCITY series archive. Full VELOCITY dispatch →
80+
Suspicious accounts
(NYT)
27
Topics flagged
(12 = Iran war)
$2.7M+
Iran-related
Polymarket profits
50%
Military underdogs
win (vs 14% other)
$25B
Monthly Kalshi +
Polymarket volume
DOCUMENTED INCIDENTS
| Date |
Event / Bet |
Profit |
Status |
| Jan 1–2, 2026 | Maduro removal — bet at 7% odds before US entered Venezuela Jan 3 | $400,000+ | CHARGED |
| Feb 27–28, 2026 | US strike on Iran — 27 accounts, coordinated bets after Trump 3:38 PM order aboard Air Force One | $700,000+ | REVIEW |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Iran ceasefire — 7+ users bet hours before Trump Truth Social post. Two users $400K+ each. | $1.4M+ | REVIEW |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Israel strikes Iran — 13 users, 7 accounts opened days prior. "It's happening now" text as planes took off. | $600,000+ | CHARGED |
OLDGOAT OIL SHORT ARCHIVE — $3.2B / 6 SPIKES / 0 INVESTIGATIONS
$580MMar 23 — WTI short, 15 min before Trump paused strikes
$950MApr 7 — WTI short before ceasefire announcement
$750MApr 17 — WTI short, 20 min before Iran FM Hormuz announcement
$920MMay 7 — WTI short, 70 min before Axios MOU report (~$125M est. profit)
FAMILY FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
| Figure | Platform Connection |
|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | Adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. 1789 Capital. |
| Trump Media (DJT) | Announced plans for own prediction market. |
| Eric Trump | Alt5 board member (Nasdaq video Aug 2025). Alt5 acquired 7.5% WLFI tokens ($1.5B). Name removed Mar–May 2026. Claims "never" on board. Video not retracted. |
| Zack Witkoff | Alt5 chairman. Son of Iran negotiator Steve Witkoff. Introduced Eric Trump as "fellow board member" at Nasdaq. |
| CFTC Chair Selig | "Outspoken prediction market enthusiast." "There are no gaps in our ability to fulfill our mission." |
SUSPICIOUS PATTERN FLAGS (NYT Methodology)
FLAG 1 Long-shot bet pays off — event probability ≤35%
FLAG 2 Recently opened account — within 7 days of winning bet
FLAG 3 Topic concentration — bets on 1–3 related topics, never loses
FLAG 4 Coordinated timing — multiple accounts, identical bets, same minute
FLAG 5 Military topic premium — underdogs win 50%+ vs. 14% other topics
FLAG 6 Post-win dormancy — account goes dark after single large bet
Investigation Board: Direct link between oil shorts ($3.2B) and individuals with classified strike access — pattern documented, individuals not named. Overlap between Polymarket clusters and VELOCITY series figures — structural inference. Alt5/Chinese CCP-connected firm deal — FT reported, not independently verified.