Insider Trading Investigation Dashboard

Iran War Intelligence Layer

Three independent signals triangulated around the Iran War / ceasefire timeline (March 2026 – present): Polymarket prediction market trade spikes detected in the 60 minutes before each policy event; unusual options flow in energy, defense, and tanker stocks flagged by vol/OI ratio, new-position creation, and implied volatility; and SEC Form 4 insider trades scored PRE_IRAN_CONFLICT — filed within 14 days of a qualifying MILITARY/MARKET/MANIPULATION event.

Editorial note: Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was succeeded by his son Mojtaba Khamenei. References to "Khamenei" in entries dated before the succession refer to Ali Khamenei; references after refer to Mojtaba Khamenei. This dashboard uses full names where the distinction matters.

CATASTROPHIC and EXTREME events drive pre-positioning signal windows. Newest first.

Five documented instances of crude oil positioning placed before Iran war announcements. Four futures shorts ($3.2B notional, sourced from The Kobeissi Letter and Financial Times). Fifth: Kalshi WTI >$93.99 event contract spike Jun 3, 2026 — 6.6x pre-event ratio, 1,676 trades, Qeshm Island strike context. WTI intraday high $94.00 cleared threshold. Futures trader identities unconfirmed. Combined futures notional: ~$3.2 billion.

Four live implementation disputes from the 14-point Iran MOU, each testing whether the treaty's vague language survives contact with execution. The financial-correlation thesis these threads feed: the Strait of Hormuz fee is not about revenue — it is about jurisdiction.

1 — The Toll Booth Thesis, Confirmed and Named

An academic source has now confirmed the mechanism almost word-for-word. Mostafa Khoshcheshm (University of Applied Sciences, Tehran), to Al Jazeera: "According to the MoU, Iran is not going to charge service fees for 60 days, but afterwards, Iran is definitely going to do that." The sharper line reframes the entire thesis: "The money is not the real core of the issue. The point here is how to impose your new protocols in the region." The fee was never about revenue — it is about Iran establishing standing regulatory authority over the strait. Trump has twice flatly called tolls "unacceptable" and a "game-changer" if true; Rubio: "the whole world will be against any mechanism that charges money." Meanwhile Iran's chief Hormuz negotiator Ghalibaf met Omani officials in Muscat to lock in a joint Iranian-Omani maritime mechanism (ISW-tracked), and the IMO is running a parallel "temporary transit corridor" scheme through Oman — meaning two competing Hormuz governance tracks now run at once: the US "no tolls, ever" position, and an Iran-Oman-IMO track quietly building operational infrastructure.

2 — The Frozen Funds: A Three-Way Contradiction

The first hard number on MOU Paragraph 11: a $12B frozen-assets release, split $6B/$6B, brokered via the Qatar trip and finalized in Switzerland — a distinct mechanism from the separate $300B reconstruction fund (Paragraph 6). They are different paragraphs; the dashboard must not conflate them. On where the money goes, three officials contradict each other:

A clean three-institution dispute over a single question — does the MOU require Iran to spend on US agriculture, or does the US merely intend to channel it there. Iran's deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi and VP Vance add further divergence; the earlier Ghalibaf "finalized" claim should no longer be treated as the only Iranian position. Watch: the August 21 oil-sanctions waiver expiration — which clusters within ten days of Cuba's Aug 14 window and the post-FIFA Mullin/CBP timeline.

3 — The IAEA Inspection Ban (Para 8 Stalled at the Access Stage)

A serious new compliance crisis. Escalation timeline: a dispute over inspector access surfaced June 22–23, then on June 24 Iran fully blocked IAEA access to specific bombed sites, citing "national security zone" status — which the State Department disputes. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (confirmed present at the Bürgenstock talks) says inspections "are going to happen"; an unnamed Iranian official says that is contingent on a final deal being reached first. The verification supposedly handled by Paragraph 8's "down-blending under IAEA supervision" is now stalled at the access stage — before down-blending can even begin.

4 — Unsubstantiated Claims Pattern: Hormuz "Oil Gusher"

Energy Sec. Chris Wright cited a 20-million-barrel Hormuz exit rate in 24 hours (Reuters Global Energy Forum) — the first hard flow-rate figure since reopening, alongside the previously logged 55-ships-in-a-day mark. Wright blames residual Iranian mines for the gap to pre-war volume — a claim flagged here as unverified (no independent confirmation of ongoing mines). Trump's parallel Hormuz "oil gusher" overstatement is logged as a second data point in the unsubstantiated-claims pattern, alongside the Reflecting Pool vandalism claims. Reflecting Pool · Section V →

5 — Defense-Contractor Replenishment Meeting (Blood Money cross-ref)

A second White House defense-production gathering (first was March) — attendees Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX, Boeing (BA), Northrop Grumman (NOC), BAE, Honeywell (HON), L3Harris (LHX) — explicitly about replenishing depleted air-defense stockpiles after the Iran war and "other conflicts." Ties directly to the Krugman framing already logged ("obsolete weapons — $30K Shaheds vs. million-dollar Patriots"). See PRE_IRAN_CONFLICT table below for any Form 4 activity in these tickers near the meeting date.

Polymarket Pre-Event Trade Spikes 3 signal(s)

Per-minute trade rate in the 60-minute window before each Iran-related policy event vs. the 24-hour baseline. Spike ratio ≥ 5x is flagged as suspicious. Data source: data-api.polymarket.com (public, no auth required).

Unusual Options Flow — Energy / Defense / Tankers top 30 of 30

Options contracts with abnormal volume/open-interest ratios, new position creation (OI = 0), or elevated implied volatility. Score ≥ 4 is flagged. Data source: yfinance. Scan date shown in source file.

PRE_IRAN_CONFLICT Flagged Insider Trades 20 trade(s)

SEC Form 4 trades in energy, defense, or tanker tickers (XOM, CVX, OXY, LMT, RTX, FRO, etc.) filed within 14 days before a qualifying Iran War event (March 2026 onwards). Scored by insider_trading_detector.py.

Trump declared the ceasefire "over" July 9-10; bombardment has since escalated to the heaviest levels of the war, including strikes on Iranian bridges, rail, and power/water infrastructure in Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Jordan, plus an Iranian request that the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The unusual-options table above (scan date July 18) flags 1,367 contracts across Defense/Energy/Tanker. Unlike the June 11 cluster (see Influence Orbit tab), this scan's cross-reference to a single dated policy event comes back empty — there is no future announcement to pre-position ahead of, because the war itself is the ongoing event. Read the direction carefully: energy calls (CVX $200c, XOM $160c, OXY $55/56c, all July 24 expiry) are bullish, consistent with Hormuz-risk crude pricing (Brent ~$85-86); PLTR and FRO are instead dominated by puts at high implied volatility, the opposite of a straightforward "war is bullish for defense/tankers" bet.