Three independent signals triangulated around the Iran War / ceasefire timeline (March 2026 – present):
Polymarket prediction market trade spikes detected in the 60 minutes before each policy event;
unusual options flow in energy, defense, and tanker stocks flagged by vol/OI ratio, new-position creation, and implied volatility;
and SEC Form 4 insider trades scored PRE_IRAN_CONFLICT — filed within 14 days of a qualifying MILITARY/MARKET/MANIPULATION event.
CATASTROPHIC and EXTREME events drive pre-positioning signal windows. Newest first.
Five documented instances of crude oil positioning placed before Iran war announcements. Four futures shorts ($3.2B notional, sourced from The Kobeissi Letter and Financial Times). Fifth: Kalshi WTI >$93.99 event contract spike Jun 3, 2026 — 6.6x pre-event ratio, 1,676 trades, Qeshm Island strike context. WTI intraday high $94.00 cleared threshold. Futures trader identities unconfirmed. Combined futures notional: ~$3.2 billion.
| Time (ET) | Event | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 03:40 AM | ~9,800 crude oil futures contracts shorted — $920M notional. No news catalyst. Flagged by The Kobeissi Letter as "an unusually large trade for that early hour." | T+0 |
| 04:50 AM | Axios / Barak Ravid publishes exclusive: White House believes US and Iran "on verge of agreeing to a 14-point MOU" to end the war. | +70 min |
| 07:00 AM | Oil falls 12%. Estimated profit: ~$125 million in under 3 hours. Trader identity unconfirmed. | +3h 20m |
| Date / Time | Short Position | Policy Event | Lead Time | Est. Profit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 · 03:40 AM | $920M (9,800 contracts) | Axios: US-Iran MOU "on verge of agreement" | 70 min BEFORE | ~$125M | Kobeissi Letter |
| Apr 17, 2026 | $750M | Iran FM: Strait of Hormuz open | 20 min BEFORE | est. $90M+ | Financial Times |
| Apr 7, 2026 | $950M | Trump announces ceasefire / Hormuz reopening | minutes BEFORE | est. $115M+ | Financial Times |
| Mar 23, 2026 | $580M | Trump posts statement pausing Iran strikes | 15 min BEFORE | est. $70M+ | Financial Times |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Kalshi WTI >$93.99 event contracts 6.6x spike / 1,676 trades | Qeshm Island strikes — WTI intraday high $94.00 clears $93.99 threshold | PRE-EVENT | est. pending | Kalshi (Jun 3) |
Per-minute trade rate in the 60-minute window before each Iran-related policy event vs. the 24-hour baseline. Spike ratio ≥ 5x is flagged as suspicious. Data source: data-api.polymarket.com (public, no auth required).
| Market Question | Category | Event Date | Policy Event | Spike | Trades (60min) | Volume (60min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Californi | MILITARY | 2026-06-03 | Rubio Senate testimony on Greenland: answered "for now" when asked if US would n | 51.4x | 11 | $1,302 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-05-29 | Situation Room meeting concludes — two hours, no decision reached. Senior offi | 46.6x | 17 | $36,083 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-05-24 | Trump directs US negotiators not to rush Iran deal involving 60-day ceasefire an | 41.8x | 5 | $7,228 |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | MANIPULATION | 2026-06-05 | House Oversight June 5 deadline: Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan + Kalshi CEO Tarek | 35.6x | 3 | $41,485 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | MARKET | 2026-04-08 | Tanker Insurance Rates Triple; Shipping Stocks FRO/STNG Surge 40% | 20.7x | 2 | $5,531 |
| Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-05-26 | UN Security Council condemns Barakah nuclear plant drone strike (May 17) as flag | 13.5x | 5 | $454 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | MILITARY | 2026-05-30 | Iran reasserts control over Hormuz Strait with US-Iran deal stalled; Pentagon ch | 11.5x | 1 | $242 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-05-26 | UN Security Council condemns Barakah nuclear plant drone strike (May 17) as flag | 5.3x | 1 | $4,119 |
| Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | MILITARY | 2026-05-15 | Trump defers decision on Taiwan weapons package, creating uncertainty on defense | 4.6x | 3 | $83 |
| Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-05-27 | Trump threatens to 'blow up' US ally Oman at cabinet meeting if it participates | 4.5x | 4 | $151 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | MILITARY | 2026-06-02 | Trump engages in diplomatic talks with Hezbollah and Israel as Lebanon conflict | 4.0x | 1 | $1,549 |
| Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Californi | MARKET | 2026-05-25 | Oil prices fall on mixed US-Iran peace deal signals while Japan's stock market s | 4.0x | 1 | $100 |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? | MILITARY | 2026-06-01 | Trump claims direct conversation with Hezbollah. Lebanese presidency confirms He | 3.4x | 3 | $367 |
| Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | MILITARY | 2026-02-15 | Venezuela Operations Escalation - Additional Troop Deployment | 3.4x | 3 | $113 |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | MILITARY | 2026-06-03 | Rubio Senate testimony on Greenland: answered "for now" when asked if US would n | 3.4x | 14 | $778 |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? | MILITARY | 2026-05-28 | US conducts second round of strikes against Iranian targets in three days during | 3.0x | 5 | $327 |
Options contracts with abnormal volume/open-interest ratios, new position creation (OI = 0), or elevated implied volatility. Score ≥ 4 is flagged. Data source: yfinance. Scan date shown in source file.
| Sector | Ticker | Side | Expiry | Strike | Volume | OI | IV | Score | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | HAL | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $23 | 10,000 | 10 | 253% | 7/8 | VOL/OI=1000.0x | HIGH_IV=253% | LARGE_VOL=10,000 | |
| Energy | SLB | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $38 | 8,886 | 1,305 | 172% | 7/8 | VOL/OI=6.8x | HIGH_IV=172% | LARGE_VOL=8,886 | PRE |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-12 | $90 | 8,587 | 1,583 | 112% | 7/8 | VOL/OI=5.4x | HIGH_IV=112% | LARGE_VOL=8,587 | PRE |
| Energy | CVX | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $145 | 8,333 | 115 | 60% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=72.5x | ELEVATED_IV=61% | LARGE_VOL=8,333 | |
| Energy | HAL | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $25 | 6,840 | 0 | 221% | 6/8 | NEW_POSITION(OI=0) | HIGH_IV=221% | LARGE_VOL=6,84 |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-18 | $82 | 2,768 | 684 | 115% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=4.0x | HIGH_IV=115% | VOL=2,768 | PRE_MILIT |
| Energy | HAL | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $20 | 2,450 | 328 | 304% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=7.5x | HIGH_IV=304% | VOL=2,450 | PRE_MILIT |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-12 | $80 | 2,091 | 50 | 130% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=41.8x | HIGH_IV=130% | VOL=2,091 | PRE_MILI |
| Defense | RTX | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $135 | 2,021 | 60 | 107% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=33.7x | HIGH_IV=107% | VOL=2,021 | PRE_MILI |
| Defense | RTX | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $125 | 1,960 | 3 | 129% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=653.3x | HIGH_IV=129% | VOL=1,960 | PRE_MIL |
| Energy | PSX | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $135 | 1,722 | 2 | 106% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=861.0x | HIGH_IV=106% | VOL=1,722 | PRE_MIL |
| Energy | HAL | CALL | 2026-06-18 | $18 | 1,130 | 170 | 346% | 6/8 | VOL/OI=6.6x | HIGH_IV=346% | VOL=1,130 | PRE_MILIT |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $138 | 27,518 | 2,141 | — | 5/8 | VOL/OI=12.9x | LARGE_VOL=27,518 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $137 | 26,008 | 3,754 | — | 5/8 | VOL/OI=6.9x | LARGE_VOL=26,008 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $142 | 20,071 | 9,980 | 42% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=2.0x | LARGE_VOL=20,071 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $135 | 18,318 | 4,374 | 10% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=4.2x | LARGE_VOL=18,318 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $136 | 14,856 | 1,531 | — | 5/8 | VOL/OI=9.7x | LARGE_VOL=14,856 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $138 | 13,103 | 8,679 | 26% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=1.5x | LARGE_VOL=13,103 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $140 | 12,245 | 6,240 | — | 5/8 | VOL/OI=2.0x | LARGE_VOL=12,245 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $140 | 12,242 | 7,021 | 32% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=1.7x | LARGE_VOL=12,242 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $139 | 11,801 | 773 | 30% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=15.3x | LARGE_VOL=11,801 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-12 | $142 | 8,562 | 1,321 | 51% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=6.5x | LARGE_VOL=8,562 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-05 | $139 | 7,636 | 2,206 | — | 5/8 | VOL/OI=3.5x | LARGE_VOL=7,636 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Energy | OXY | CALL | 2026-06-12 | $60 | 6,596 | 1,818 | 37% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=3.6x | LARGE_VOL=6,596 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Energy | OXY | CALL | 2026-06-12 | $59 | 6,564 | 2,463 | 37% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=2.7x | LARGE_VOL=6,564 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $137 | 6,299 | 713 | 22% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=8.8x | LARGE_VOL=6,299 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-12 | $138 | 5,911 | 492 | 51% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=12.0x | LARGE_VOL=5,911 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-05 | $141 | 5,810 | 3,412 | 38% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=1.7x | LARGE_VOL=5,810 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | CALL | 2026-06-12 | $147 | 5,128 | 2,063 | 52% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=2.5x | LARGE_VOL=5,128 | PRE_MILITARY_6d |
| Defense | PLTR | PUT | 2026-06-12 | $100 | 3,413 | 1,017 | 93% | 5/8 | VOL/OI=3.4x | ELEVATED_IV=93% | VOL=3,413 | PRE_MI |
SEC Form 4 trades in energy, defense, or tanker tickers (XOM, CVX, OXY, LMT, RTX, FRO, etc.) filed within 14 days before a qualifying Iran War event (March 2026 onwards). Scored by insider_trading_detector.py.
| # | Executive / Date | Company / Ticker | Value | Score | Flags | Nearest Policy Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Famatown Finance Ltd 2026-03-10 | International Seaways, Inc.INSW | $11,779,688 | 23/20 | SALELARGE $1M+MEGA $10M+SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVTLIQUIDATION | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 2 | Famatown Finance Ltd 2026-03-09 | International Seaways, Inc.INSW | $22,684,500 | 19/20 | SALELARGE $1M+MEGA $10M+1 DAY BEFOREMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVTLIQUIDATION | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 3 | Jackson Richard A. 2026-03-01 | OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/OXY | Undisclosed | 19/20 | CORP DONORSAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 4 | Grillo Debra 2026-03-10 | International Seaways, Inc.INSW | Undisclosed | 19/20 | CORP DONORSAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 5 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N 2026-03-09 | GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPGD | $2,210,190 | 18/20 | SALELARGE $1M+CORP DONOR1 DAY BEFOREMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 6 | DEMARCO ERIC M 2026-03-01 | KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, INC.KTOS | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 7 | Simmons Jeff F 2026-03-01 | OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/OXY | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 8 | Mattis James N 2026-03-09 | GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPGD | $29,863 | 16/20 | SALECORP DONOR1 DAY BEFOREMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 9 | Grillo Debra 2026-03-09 | International Seaways, Inc.INSW | $29,669 | 16/20 | SALECORP DONOR1 DAY BEFOREMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Conflict Escalation - Strait of Hormuz Disruption |
| 10 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N 2026-03-11 | GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPGD | $3,504,552 | 16/20 | SALELARGE $1M+CORP DONOR4d BEFOREMILITARYIRAN CONFLICT | Emergency Defense Spending Bill ($50B Supplemental) |
| 11 | Corbett Ryan 2026-03-17 | MP Materials Corp. / DEMP | $2,760,000 | 16/20 | SALELARGE $1M+3d BEFOREIRAN CONFLICTTRUTH SOCIAL | Trump Truth Social: Cryptic Post About 'Markets Going Up Big' |
| 12 | Floerke Gregory Scott 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 13 | Dillon Kenneth 2026-03-01 | OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/OXY | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 14 | Benson Molly R 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 15 | Brzezinski Erin M 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 16 | Lyon Shawn M 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 17 | Hessling Ricky D. 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 18 | Henschen Michael A II 2026-03-01 | Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 19 | Mathew Sunil 2026-03-01 | OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/OXY | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |
| 20 | Kerrigan Sylvia J 2026-03-01 | OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/OXY | Undisclosed | 16/20 | SAME DAYMILITARYIRAN CONFLICTEXTREME EVT | Iran Military Operations Begin |