On the morning of March 22, oil futures trading spiked in the minutes before President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would pause planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders had placed more than $500 million in crude futures bets roughly fifteen minutes ahead of the post. Oil prices fell within minutes of the announcement.
The same shape repeated on April 7. At 6:49 a.m., traders sold roughly 8,600 combined Brent and WTI crude futures lots -- about $950 million in notional value, each leg equal to roughly 1 percent of the day's entire regular-session volume. At 7:04 a.m., fifteen minutes later, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil dropped about 15 percent by the next session.
One detail in the April 7 trade has drawn particular attention: the Brent leg was exactly 6,200 lots -- the identical size of the largest position in the March 22 trade. Markets don't produce that kind of coincidence by chance. Either the same actor placed both trades, or two different actors independently arrived at the identical number down to the lot -- and the second possibility is not the reassuring one.
The pattern predates both incidents. An anonymous Polymarket account trading as "Magamyman" made roughly $430,000 to $553,000 correctly betting on the timing of the February 28 U.S.-Israel strikes that opened the war, and profited again days later on Iran's Supreme Leader being killed in a follow-on strike. View Prediction Markets → Israeli police opened an investigation into whether the account holder had inside information. Polymarket's identity-shielding -- most U.S. users access the platform through a VPN -- means the account has never been publicly unmasked, and it was still actively trading Iran-related contracts as of this writing.
Congress Has Sent Four Letters
Sens. Warren and Whitehouse wrote CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on April 9 calling the pattern a "recurring concern." Rep. Ritchie Torres wrote Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins on April 14, calling the April 7 trade potentially the largest instance of insider trading in history. A third Senate letter followed on May 27. Warren wrote Selig again on June 8, this time citing a New York Times report on what she called industry capture and administration interference in the regulator's own decision-making.
There is a specific legal provision built for exactly this. CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller told an NYU Law audience on March 31 that the Commodity Exchange Act's Section 4c(a)(4) -- nicknamed the Eddie Murphy Rule, after a 1980s stock-swindle plot that pushed Congress to ban trading on stolen government crop reports -- extends to anyone trading on material nonpublic government information, including people who received it from a government source in breach of duty. Selig himself testified to the House Agriculture Committee on April 16 that the CFTC "will find" anyone engaged in insider trading in its markets.
Six weeks later, the May 27 Senate letter cited Barron's reporting that the CFTC's own prediction-markets enforcement office had lost its last enforcement attorney.
The Trump Family's Growing Stake
While Congress was writing letters, the Trump family's financial stake in the industry being scrutinized was growing. The Department of Justice and CFTC closed their investigations into Polymarket in July 2025 -- probes that had included an FBI raid on founder Shayne Coplan's apartment. Six weeks after that, Donald Trump Jr.'s venture fund, 1789 Capital, made its first investment in Polymarket, and Trump Jr. joined the company's advisory board. Today, 1789 Capital is leading a new $1 billion funding round for Polymarket, contributing $300 million on top of the roughly $200 million it had already put in -- bringing its total stake to about $500 million at a $21 billion valuation. Trump Jr. also holds a paid advisory role and more than $300,000 in shares at Kalshi, Polymarket's chief rival, giving him a financial interest on both sides of the industry the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over. View Orbit Map →
The House Judiciary Committee's Democrats are separately investigating 1789 Capital's broader pattern of investing in companies whose fortunes are shaped by federal policy.
None of this proves Trump Jr., or anyone in his orbit, placed a single trade. What it shows is simpler, and in its way more durable: the agency responsible for catching the trades is short-staffed, its chairman was appointed by the trader's father, and the president's son has half a billion dollars riding on the industry growing regardless of who's on the other side of the bet.
Selig said the CFTC would find whoever is doing this. Nobody has been found yet.