What Polar LNG Says It Is
Polar LNG's website shows an American flag and a bald eagle and calls the project "America's Arctic Advantage." The plan is to take natural gas that comes up with oil on Alaska's North Slope, gas that today is pumped back underground for lack of a way to move it, and freeze it into liquid on a giant concrete-and-steel platform set on the seabed near Milne Point, then ship it through the ice to Asia. The Financial Times puts the terminal at $25 billion.
The platform, called a gravity-based structure, would come from Novatek, Russia's biggest private gas producer. Novatek uses the same design at Arctic LNG 2, its Arctic export project. The United States sanctioned Arctic LNG 2, and the Korean-built icebreaking tankers Polar LNG wants to use were originally built for Novatek and held back after those sanctions, the Times reports. Buying the platform would need a Treasury licence.
Where the Money Came From
REPORTED. Joel Riddle, Polar LNG's chief executive until he resigned in September, told the Times that he had been told the start-up money came from Tech Wave Industrial Projects Management, an Abu Dhabi company. He said he learned that at least some of it came from Novatek. "It's not only unlawful, but it's not in the U.S. interest to have Russian technology controlling the commercialization of Arctic gas in the North Slope," he said.
The Times describes a late-August meeting at the Four Seasons in Abu Dhabi attended by Polar LNG, Tech Wave and top Novatek executives, and text messages in which Novatek's deputy chairman, Denis Solovyov, and chief executive Leonid Mikhelson discussed providing as much as $15 million to Tech Wave to keep Polar LNG going. "All the necessary decisions were made at the meeting in Abu Dhabi," Solovyov wrote to Riddle in early September. "The first 5 million were supposed to arrive by today." Tech Wave's chief operating officer, Bjorn Gundersen, was a senior Novatek executive a decade ago, and another Tech Wave executive, Ahmed Farghaly, worked for Novatek until recently. Tech Wave says Novatek "has no ownership interest" in it, and did not answer whether Novatek money financed Polar LNG.
REPORTED. A memo from the law firm Baker Botts, attached to Riddle's resignation letter, says federal officials had told the company they were concerned an investor "has ties to Novatek and may be acting on Novatek's behalf." The chief financial officer, Dan Chandra, and executive vice president Jim Smith, a former Exxon Mobil executive, also left. Riddle says the executives warned the Energy Department, which did not answer the Times. The company says it fired Riddle "for cause"; the Times saw documents showing he resigned six days before the company sent a termination letter that cited, in part, his raising of sanctions concerns.
On Friday, Novatek told the Times it was moving to take "minority shareholder" status in the project. That would make Novatek both supplier and part-owner of an American gas export plant.
Who Is Paid to Push It
DOCUMENTED. Lobbying disclosures show Squire Patton Boggs registered for Polar LNG in the second quarter of 2026 and reported $380,000 in income from it that quarter and $380,000 again in the third quarter, filed Oct. 15. The issue is "LNG permitting, exports and project development." The registered lobbyists are Nicole Rodgers and Adam Suess, whose filing lists his covered position as acting assistant secretary for land and minerals management at the Interior Department from March to October 2025, the office that runs federal oil and gas leasing. LDA filings →
REPORTED. Gentry Beach, a college friend of Donald Trump Jr. and a finance vice chairman of the 2017 inauguration, said in February that he had held talks with Novatek about bringing its technology to Alaska. Riddle told the FT he first believed Beach and Tech Wave were funding the project, and later learned Beach was not an investor or shareholder. Novatek says Beach had no role in its talks to take a stake, and a spokesman for Trump Jr. says the two are no longer close.
The Moscow Channel, Deal by Deal
REPORTED. People familiar with the talks told the Times that Putin discussed the Alaska plan last month with the president's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Putin had said publicly in 2025 that "we are discussing with our American partners" the use of Novatek technology for Alaska gas. A U.S. official told the Times it came up only broadly. The FT reports a proposal under which Novatek would supply know-how for Alaska in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Arctic LNG 2. Novatek denies any link between the two.
| Date | Event | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 2026 | Gentry Beach says he has talked with Novatek about Alaska gas | REPORTED |
| Apr. 2026 | Novatek signs a memorandum with Polar LNG, it says | REPORTED |
| Q2 2026 | Squire Patton Boggs registers for Polar LNG; $380,000 | DOCUMENTED |
| Late Aug. 2026 | Abu Dhabi meeting with Novatek executives | REPORTED |
| Sept. 5, 2026 | Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin; Lukoil sale raised (Three Hats) | REPORTED |
| Sept. 2026 | Riddle resigns; Chandra and Smith leave | REPORTED |
| Q3 2026 | Another $380,000 to Squire Patton Boggs (filed Oct. 15) | DOCUMENTED |
| Oct. 16, 2026 | Trump waives every Russia section of the Graham Act, which names Novatek and Arctic LNG 2, two days before it takes effect | REPORTED |
| Oct. 21, 2026 | OFAC issues GL 131K: Lukoil International sale talks licensed through Nov. 21 | DOCUMENTED |
| Oct. 23, 2026 | NYT reports the Novatek funding; Novatek says it seeks a minority stake | REPORTED |
DOCUMENTED. The Lukoil clock in Three Hats → moved again this week. OFAC's General License 131K, dated Oct. 21, replaces 131J and lets buyers negotiate contingent contracts for Lukoil International through 12:01 a.m. on Nov. 21, 2026, still without approving any sale. GL 131K → The sanctions waiver, named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, is covered in Joint Economic Ventures →, and the diesel deal in Six Months of Russian Diesel →.
What the Old Goat Reads Into It
INFERENCE. Each deal in the Moscow channel arrives dressed in American colors: energy dominance, cheaper diesel, a peace process. Lukoil's refineries were to go to a group with a U.S. government stake. Alaska's gas was to go out under a bald eagle. In each one, the Russian side gets something it cannot get while sanctions hold: a buyer for frozen assets, or a customer and co-owner for its Arctic technology. This week the sanctions law built to stop exactly that was waived in full. Novatek says the Alaska project and sanctions relief are unrelated. The Old Goat notes only that both sit on the same table.
Counter-evidence, plainly. The project may never be built. It needs a Treasury licence, a federal export permit and a site that may be too shallow, and it competes with the $50 billion Alaska pipeline that both the Biden and Trump administrations have backed. A U.S. official says the talks never got into detail. Riddle's account is contested by his former company, which says it may sue him. Nothing here shows any U.S. official gaining from the project.