What the License Says
DOCUMENTED. General License 135, dated Oct. 9, 2026 and signed by OFAC Director Bradley T. Smith, is one paragraph and one exception. Paragraph (a) authorizes "all transactions prohibited by" the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 587) and the Ukraine-/Russia-Related Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 589) "that are related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin," through 12:01 a.m. EDT on April 7, 2027. Paragraph (b) says the license "does not authorize any debit to an account on the books of a U.S. financial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance." That is all. It names no seller, no buyer, no volume and no price. Earlier Russia licenses were written around named companies. This one is written around a product.
What Was Said Around It
REPORTED. Trump posted on Oct. 9 about the supply. Euromaidan Press, summarizing the post, lists more than 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, another million tons after that, and up to 3 million more later, depending on Russia's refineries. None of those figures appears in the license. The same account quotes analysts saying the first tranches would cover about a day and a half of American demand, against roughly 16 million tons of diesel used a month in the United States. The European Union is moving the other way: EU ambassadors approved its largest package of Russia sanctions, due for final adoption Oct. 12, per the same account, and the New York Times reports Germany said it would stand by its sanctions. Kaja Kallas, quoted by the Times, wrote that suspending sanctions on Russian diesel "provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war." Zelenskyy called it "a weak decision by strong partners," per Euromaidan Press.
REPORTED. The New York Times reports that on Oct. 10 Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president," blaming Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries for higher global energy prices, and that on Oct. 11 he announced an "energy cease-fire" between Russia and Ukraine that neither Kyiv nor Moscow had confirmed. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would stop hitting refineries if Russia stopped hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Times says Russia struck a power plant in Kharkiv shortly after Trump's announcement.
The Lukoil Clock
DOCUMENTED. The Old Goat's Lukoil dispatch records two dates still running. General License 131J, which lets buyers negotiate and sign contracts for Lukoil International GmbH, contingent on a separate OFAC authorization, expires at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Oct. 22. General Licenses 128C and 130A, covering Lukoil's stations outside Russia and its Bulgarian entities, run to Oct. 29. GL 135 sits between the diesel emergency and those deadlines: The Times noted that Lukoil's refineries in the Netherlands, Bulgaria and Romania make diesel and jet fuel, products in short supply since the Iran war began. The Old Goat's INFERENCE, stated in that dispatch, is that the shortage gives the administration cover for a Lukoil deal.
The Old Goat read paragraph (b) twice. It excludes three sovereign accounts and nothing else. On its plain words, the license does not carve out sanctioned Russian oil companies from the diesel trade. Whether OFAC reads it that way, and whether the Rosneft and Lukoil designations still bite on a diesel sale, is a question for OFAC's FAQ or counsel, and the Old Goat did not find an FAQ addressing it. He flags it as an open question, not a finding.
What the Old Goat Thinks It Means
This part is opinion, labeled as opinion. The license is temporary, product-based and written without a named counterparty, and the president's stated aim is lower energy prices three weeks before an election. The Old Goat's INFERENCE is that midterm fuel prices set the timing: the diesel export-ban threat of Oct. 1-2, the G7 stock release and the license are three moves on one problem. It is also the Old Goat's INFERENCE that tying a sanctions relief to Ukraine's refinery strikes and to its president's future puts Kyiv in a position the license text never mentions.
Counter-evidence, plainly: relief aimed at pump prices is a legitimate policy goal, the volumes quoted are small and may never arrive, the license expires in six months, and it leaves Russian central-bank and finance-ministry accounts blocked. Nothing in the license, or in the reporting the Old Goat read, ties it to a named company, a trade or a donor.
A license written around a product helps whoever sells the product.
The Old Goat will watch for the OFAC FAQ, any tanker that loads under the license, and what happens to GL 131J on Oct. 22.