The Pull
The last dispatch, The Top Political Advertiser Takes Bets, ended on the Trump family's ties to both big prediction markets. This one goes to the filings. The Old Goat searched SEC EDGAR's full-text index for "1789 Capital," "Blockratize" (the legal name of Polymarket's operating company) and "Polymarket," read all 64 Form D notices of private placements that came back, and read the Intercontinental Exchange quarterly report that describes its own Polymarket purchases. The Old Goat also pulled Federal Election Commission contributions for three named principals. Saved files: sec_formd_1789_polymarket_2026-10-09.csv and fec_malik_coplan_buskirk_2026-10-09.csv.
Two limits apply. The Senate lobbying-disclosure system returned a server error on every request, so no lobbying filing for Polymarket, Kalshi or 1789 Capital was checked. A Form D also shows who sold securities, not who bought them, so nothing below says what any fund actually owns.
UPDATE, Oct. 10: the lobbying filings have since been pulled and are in Registered to Lobby. The first limit described above no longer applies. The text below is left as first published.
Polymarket's Own Filings
DOCUMENTED. Blockratize Inc., a Delaware corporation, filed three Form Ds. The first, Oct. 18, 2024, reports $82,203,608 sold to 28 investors after a first sale on Oct. 4. An amendment on Feb. 25, 2025 reports $90,948,943 sold to 41 investors. A new notice on Aug. 1, 2025 reports $135,373,939 sold of a $257,535,911 offering, with 23 investors and a first sale on July 18. The only executive officer and director named is Shayne Coplan; the directors named across the filings are Bart Stephens and Joshua Rivera. The Old Goat found no Blockratize Form D after Aug. 1, 2025 in these results and does not know why.
DOCUMENTED, from the Intercontinental Exchange's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. On Oct. 7, 2025 ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to buy 9.6 million shares of Blockratize's Series D preferred for $1.0 billion. On March 26, 2026 it invested another $600 million in Series E preferred. In April 2026 it bought about 0.4 million common shares in a tender for $40 million. ICE reports that the Series D and E carry a value of about $2.0 billion, about 22% of Polymarket's outstanding shares and 14% fully diluted, that it has the right to nominate one board member, and that it booked a $389 million fair-value gain in the first quarter. The company says it can exercise significant influence over Polymarket's operations.
The 1789 Capital Filings
DOCUMENTED. 1789 Capital's family of private funds has filed Form Ds for 37 separate entities since early 2023. Fifteen report sales; the most recent filing for each totals $643,940,116. The largest is 1789 Capital Fund I, LP, which reports $270,514,000 sold to 71 investors. The newest funds are the biggest ramp: Inception II reports $100,500,000 sold to 81 investors with a first sale on April 27, 2026; Lakehouse III reports $89,715,000 to 46 investors from March 27; and Blaze reports $59,657,500 to 23 investors from April 17. New vehicles filed as recently as Sept. 8 (Fund II-A and II-B) with nothing sold yet. The Old Goat did not find which of those funds hold Polymarket shares, because a Form D does not say.
The named officers are Omeed Malik and Christopher Buskirk on the great majority of the filings. DOCUMENTED, and notable: the first notice for Fund I, filed Feb. 9, 2023, lists Rebekah Mercer as an executive officer, director and promoter alongside Malik and Buskirk. Later amendments for that fund list only Malik and Buskirk. Mercer is the same Mercer whose family money the Old Goat traced to Cambridge Analytica in The Ledger Behind the Persuaders; the Old Goat is matching on the name and has not confirmed the identity in the filing. Donald Trump Jr. is not named as a related person in any of the 64 filings. He is reported to be a partner at the firm but, per one report, not an investment-committee member. The Old Goat does not read his absence from the Form D as anything, since Form D lists only some roles.
A Market in Shares of the Market
DOCUMENTED. A separate group of filings shows that exposure to Polymarket is being sold through special-purpose vehicles. The Old Goat found 15 such vehicles, among them HII Polymarket series, Dominari Master SPV Series XXV, MW LSV Polymarket and others, 13 of which report sales, with a combined $62,184,881 sold to 764 investor positions (the latest filing for each; an investor in several series is counted in each). They were filed between Nov. 2025 and Sept. 2026, and the newest was filed Oct. 9. The $62 million is a minor figure beside ICE's $1.6 billion, and the point is how many ordinary-sized investors are being sold into a company whose largest backers include the President's family circle.
The Checks
DOCUMENTED, from FEC Schedule A. Named individuals gave to the Republican National Committee in 2026. Shayne Coplan, with the employer listed as Blockratize Inc., gave $250,000 on Aug. 3, 2026, in three payments of $44,300, $132,900 and $72,800. Omeed Malik, employer 1789 Capital, gave $250,000 on Aug. 11 in the same three amounts, and $25,000 to the NRSC on Aug. 27. Christopher Buskirk gave $250,000 to the RNC on May 22 and $193,000 more on Aug. 6, $443,000 in all. The Buskirk identity is weaker: the 2026 gifts list self-employed and a Texas address, with one $7,000 gift in January listing 1789 Capital as employer, and the Old Goat matched on name and that link.
The record is not one-directional, and the Old Goat includes the other side. Malik gave to Joe Biden's 2019 campaign, Tulsi Gabbard, and several Democratic House candidates that year before moving to Republican committees; his Trump giving includes $55,600 to Trump Victory in 2019 and 2020, $31,600 to the Trump 47 Committee and $25,000 to the Trump National Committee JFC in 2024. Coplan gave $5,000 to Never Back Down, the super PAC that backed Ron DeSantis, in 2023, and $23,300 to the Torres Victory Fund in 2024. Buskirk's 2024 gifts include $210,000 to the Trump 47 Committee, whose identity match is also moderate. All of these are legal and disclosed. Maximum-size checks to the party committee are not unusual from wealthy donors.
What the Old Goat Thinks It Means
This part is opinion, labeled as opinion. Follow the Old Goat's two threads here and they meet. In the Cambridge Analytica thread, the Mercer name sits behind the vendor and the committees that hired it. In the prediction-market thread, the same name shows up as an executive and promoter on the first filing of the fund family that is reported to have put money into one of the exchanges that sells odds on elections, while that exchange's named executive officer and the fund family's lead officer each write a quarter-million-dollar check to the Republican National Committee in the same two weeks of August. The Old Goat's INFERENCE is that this is one ecosystem, not a coincidence of names: a small circle of donors, funds and advisers is financing the data tools, the betting markets and the party.
Counter-evidence, plainly: Form D is a self-reported notice with no proof of what funds hold; the identity of the Rebekah Mercer in the filing is a name match; maximum donations are permitted; the Old Goat found no filing that says Trump Jr. directed any investment or ad buy; ICE and the dozens of other Polymarket investors are not connected to the Trump family in any record the Old Goat found. The Old Goat has no lobbying filings at all, which is the largest hole.
If the market is the message, ask who sold the shares.
The Old Goat will update this dispatch as new filings arrive, and welcomes corrections to any figure above. The Old Goat's prediction-market tab tracks the markets themselves.