The Promise, In His Words
DOCUMENTED. One hour and 15 minutes into the Park City speech, the president turned to ethanol. "And I also gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 all year round. And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it. That's it. I'm only doing it for him." Adam Hamilton is Marshall's Democratic opponent. Transcript →
DOCUMENTED. A minute later he made the same offer about diesel and the governor's race: "If you want low cost diesel fuel ... you must vote for Ty Masterson for governor. You have to do it." Then he described the advantage he was using: "And some more goodies, you know, I always heard that when you're president, you have a little bit of an advantage and I sort of see why now, actually."
DOCUMENTED. Next came the money. "Tonight, I'm also pleased to announce that the Department of Agriculture will be launching a new Harvest fuel relief program, providing our farmers with $8 billion in support to offset diesel costs during this harvest season. And Roger Marshall is the leader who fought for that to happen." He added: "And when the Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our farmers."
DOCUMENTED. Near the end he repeated the $5,000 promise this site covered in The Second Knock, this time with a condition attached: "if you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on November 3rd, you'll get $5,000. And if you lose, you get nothing. If we lose, you get nothing."
What He Controls, and What He Doesn't
DOCUMENTED. E15 is gasoline with 15 percent ethanol. Federal volatility rules limit its sale in summer. Since 2022, EPA has let it be sold through the summer by emergency waivers, and the Clean Air Act caps each waiver at 20 days, so they are renewed again and again. This year's first waiver, issued March 25, applied nationwide, Kansas included. The president can keep that tool running from the Oval Office. 2026 waiver →
DOCUMENTED. Permanent year-round E15 is another matter. A 2024 EPA rule granted it to the eight states whose governors asked for it: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly signed the governors' original 2022 request, then withdrew Kansas that July (Kansas Corn). On April 1, 2026, her office said Kansas would not apply to join, because the temporary waiver keeps E15 on sale through 2026 and joining would not take effect until 2027, and left the choice to the next governor (Argus Media). The other route is an act of Congress, such as the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act. KCUR → Argus →
INFERENCE. Kansas's own path to permanent E15 runs through its next governor, not its senator. That is the same governor's race in which the president told the crowd to vote for Ty Masterson to get cheap diesel. A senator can only vote on the bill, and one Senate seat cannot pass or block it. The promise, then, is either a threat to stop renewing the emergency waivers if the state elects the wrong senator, or a promise about a bill that Marshall's seat alone cannot decide. Either way, a fuel decision is being tied to a vote.
The $8 Billion Isn't There Yet
DOCUMENTED. The Agriculture Department confirms the program and says it is funded under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act, with payment rates for major crops due "in November" and no payment date given (Ohio's Country Journal, which this site cited Oct. 19). OCJ →
REPORTED. Politico (Meredith Lee Hill and Grace Yarrow, Oct. 20), citing three Trump officials, reports that the account being tapped "doesn't actually have enough money in it right now to make the payments." Congress would have to add money, or the administration would have to move it from another program. Three people close to the plans say any payments would come in late November or early December at the earliest, after Election Day. Farm groups say farmers need at least $50 billion this fall. Marshall asked Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins for fuel aid in a September letter. Politico →
INFERENCE. The program was announced at a campaign rally, credited to the senator on the ballot, and promised to grow "when the Republicans win." The money, if it comes, arrives after the votes are counted. It costs nothing before Nov. 3 and pays off on Nov. 3.
The Other Calendar: What Lands After the Vote
On Oct. 21 the economist Paul Krugman wrote that the coverage losses from the 2025 budget law are timed so that much of the pain comes after the midterms. The Old Goat tested that against the law's own dates, as compiled by KFF from the statute. The Congressional Budget Office estimates for each provision are KFF's.
| Provision (law section) | Takes effect | CBO: added uninsured by 2034 |
|---|---|---|
| Medicaid work requirements (71119) | No later than Dec. 31, 2026; earlier at state option | 5.3 million |
| Six-month eligibility checks for expansion adults (71107) | Renewals on or after Dec. 31, 2026 | 700,000 |
| Retroactive coverage limits (71112) | Jan. 1, 2027 | 100,000 |
| Marketplace tax credits cut for many lawfully present immigrants (71301) | Tax years after Dec. 31, 2026 | 900,000 |
| Provider-tax safe harbor reduced (71115) | Oct. 1, 2027 | 1.1 million |
| Marketplace pre-enrollment checks; end of automatic re-enrollment (71303) | Tax years after Dec. 31, 2027 | 700,000 |
| Medicaid immigrant eligibility narrowed (71109) | Oct. 1, 2026 | 100,000 |
| Medicare eligibility narrowed for some immigrants (71201) | On enactment, July 4, 2025 | 100,000 |
| No marketplace tax credits for some lawfully present immigrants under 100% of poverty (71302) | Tax years after Dec. 31, 2025 | 300,000 |
| Cost sharing for expansion adults (71120) | Oct. 1, 2028 | not estimated |
Source: KFF, "Health Provisions in the 2025 Federal Budget Reconciliation Law." CBO's total for the law is about 10 million more uninsured; per-provision estimates do not add up to it.
DOCUMENTED. Krugman's timing claim holds. Three of the provisions in the table, all narrowing coverage for immigrants, took effect before the election, with CBO estimates totaling about 500,000. The rest add up to about 8.8 million by CBO's per-provision estimates, and every one of them starts after Nov. 3. Work requirements, the largest at 5.3 million, start no later than Dec. 31, 2026, eight weeks after the vote. KFF reports that a few states, among them Iowa, Montana and Nebraska, planned to start early.
Now the losses already counted. These are three different measures, and they should not be added together.
- DOCUMENTED (KFF, Oct. 14): enrollment in the individual market fell from 25.2 million in June 2025 to 20.5 million in June 2026, down 4.6 million or 18 percent. KFF ties the drop to the end of the enhanced premium tax credits, which Congress let expire. That is a choice not to renew, not a provision of the 2025 law. KFF →
- REPORTED (Charles Gaba, ACASignups, updated Oct. 21): from January 2025 to June 2026, public-program enrollment fell by 10.9 million to 12.4 million, net of growth in Medicare and in the population. Medicaid and CHIP alone fell about 6.2 million, by official CMS counts. His marketplace figures after February are extrapolated from about 21 states. He writes that a net change in enrollment "isn't quite the same thing as counting how many lost coverage." Krugman's "around 12 million" is the top of that range. Gaba →
- REPORTED, from this site's file: the roughly 750,000 marketplace enrollees the administration's anti-fraud task force removed in September are part of the marketplace drop, not an addition to it. See The Think Tank Behind the Purge.
Krugman also wrote that he found no recent articles on the coverage losses in the major newspapers. The Old Goat did not test that claim. KFF, CNBC and trade publications have covered the numbers this year, so read it as his opinion of how much attention the story gets.
What the Old Goat Thinks It Means
This part is opinion. Lay the two calendars side by side. What voters are offered, the fuel waiver, the farm money and the $5,000, is promised before Nov. 3 and paid after it, if it is paid at all. What voters lose, the work requirements, the six-month checks and the end of automatic re-enrollment, was passed before Nov. 3 and takes effect after it. In both cases, the bill comes due after the votes are counted.
INFERENCE. The president said the quiet part on stage: being president gives "a little bit of an advantage," and he called the farm money "goodies." A federal law, 18 U.S.C. § 600, bars promising a benefit made possible by an act of Congress as a reward for supporting a candidate. The Old Goat found no case applying it to a promise made to a whole state from a rally stage, and is not saying a law was broken. The point is narrower: "if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it" is a sentence the old law's drafters would have recognized.
Counter-evidence, plainly. Every president steers good news toward swing states before an election. Farm aid has bipartisan roots. Fuel and fertilizer costs are real, and the war drove them up. The E15 waivers have been renewed under both parties since 2022. Krugman is a partisan columnist, and Gaba's numbers are net estimates that include extrapolation. Nothing here shows that a single vote was bought.